Monday, January 26, 2015

back to normal fare

after the excitements of the weekend, it´s back to normal today with low level jumping from Ludlow and Plumpton and even worse flat racing from the all-weather track at Wolverhampton. Ludlow has the better of the two jumps cards, and there are a couple of decent 4yo´s in the opening juvenile hurdle at 14.45 CET: Arabian Revolution (John Ferguson/ Noel Fehily) and Cape Caster (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney). Both won well last time and despite carrying 7 lbs more than the others, they should have this race between them, with slight preference for the Ferguson runner, as this stable continues to operate with an excellent strike rate. The final maiden hurdle at 17.20 also looks a two-horse race: One for the Guv´nr (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) and Seven Nation Army (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) were both useful bumper horses who were good runners-up on their hurdling debuts and they will not stay maidens for long. German-bred Northern Bay has an each-way chance in the amateur riders hurdle at 16.20 despite his rider´s inexperience.

The most interesting runner at Plumpton also has a German background, Keys (Tony Carroll/ Daryl Jacob), whose dam was German; he was a very promising horse for Henderson a few years back, but has now been off the track for almost 3 years. Obviously this was not by design, but if he is anywhere near his old form he should take the opening maiden hurdle at 15.00, where Stars Royale (Nick Gifford/ Tom Cannon) is the main danger.
Charlie Appleby is another trainer operating at a good strike rate at present, and he can land a 3yo double for Godolphin at Wolverhampton with Regards (Shane Gray) in the maiden at 17.10 and then in the 3yo handicap at 18.40, where he saddles 2 of the 3 runners.

Betting forecast Ludlow:
1. Race: Arabian Revolution - Cape Caster - Sebastian Beach
2. Race: Forgivienne - Annaluna - Iron Butterfly
3. Race: Call Me Vic - Lookslikerainted - The Musical Guy
4. Race: Aristocracy - Grimley Girl - Anton Dolin
5. Race: Topthorn - Midnight Chorister - Until Winning
6. Race: Seven Nation Army - One For The Guv`nr - Arthamint