Wednesday, November 26, 2014

listed race this evening

the most interesting race at today´s 3 all-weather meetings is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 19.45 CET this evening at Kempton. Grendisar (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) has to concede weight all round here but he is a real a.w. specialist and won a similar race over CD 3 weeks ago from Fire Fighting (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who reopposes on slightly better terms. Best in at the weights is Harris Tweed (William Haggas/ George Baker), third here last year, but he has been strugglling a bit this year. The 3yo filly Kalaafah (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle) has won both her starts in a very promising manner but takes a huge leap in class here. An exotic note is provided by Moroccan-bred Billabong (Pascal Bary/ Cristian Demuro), a Casablanca specialist who ran well in France last time; Bary, who saddled the big winner at Chantilly yesterday, rarely ventures abroad and when he does it is for good reason, so we expect his horse to run well here.
Many of the jockeys will arrive here having ridden at Lingfield in the afternoon, and we expect Harley to take the 10 furlongs handicap there on Botti´s Brazilian-bred Energia Fox, who ran an excellent race when third last time in a listed race over this CD; Maverick Wave (John Gosden/ Rab Havlin) is the obvious danger; he is in good form, but up in distance here. A German-bred we like here is Cabuchon (David Evans/ Harry Burns) in the apprentice handicap at 16.40; considering his dam was a Group One winner here, he has been basically a a big disappointment, but is surely good enough to run well in this modest company.
There are small fields at today´s two N.H. Meetings, and very low class racing as well. AP McCoy makes his comeback from injury at Fontwell, where he partners bumper winner Southfield Royale for Neil Mulholland in the novice hurdle at 13.40. Clearly the team will be expected to win, biut we just prefer Coologue (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily), who made an excellent debut over hurdles at the end of last month.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jebediah Shine - Miss Jonh - Kyrenia Castle
2. Race: Archie`s Advice - Ze King - Dalgig
3. Race: Brazen Spirit - Spinaminnie - Optimystic
4. Race: Wentworth Falls - Showtime Blues - Lucky Leyf
5. Race: Kokovoko - Franco`s Secret - Summersault
6. Race: Grendisar - Fire Fighting - Rawaki
7. Race: Major Jack - Pipers Note - Lancelot Du Lac
8. Race: Brown Pete - Nouvelle Ere - Focail Mear