Monday, November 10, 2014

3 poor meetings today

the week begins with its usual very low key start, with jumps racing from Carlisle and Southwell and flat racing on the all-weather at Kempton. The fields are small at both N.H.meetings, but the card at Carlisle is clearly the strongest of the day and it is interesting that Jonjo O´Neill has booked Barry Geraghty for his 3 runners at the course, with AP McCoy still out of action. Shutthefrontdoor, winner of the Irish Grand National at Easter, should certainly take the main event, a graduation chase at 16.00 CET, while Presence Felt in the handicap chase half an hour later and Bronco Billy in the concluding bumper at 127.00 also have good chances. Fans of German pedigrees might look at Arrak (MM McNiff/ Dean Fox) in the novice hurdle at 14,15; he has not run for ages, but is from one of Schlenderhan´s best families and this is a very weak race.
Best bet at Southwell could be Definitely Better (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) in the handicap hurdle at 16.40; he has a 7 lbs penalty for a very easy win at Exeter last week and is likely to go up by much more than that when reassessed. We also like Net Work Rouge (Kim Bailey/ David Bass) in the novice hurdle at 16.10; a bumper winner in France, he was much too keen for his own good on his U.K. debut when 4th at Uttoxeter
William Buick will be at the centre of interest at Kempton following the news that he is to be one of Godolphin´s main jockeys next year..He rides Charlkie Appleby´s Holiday Magic for his new employer in the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.50. This one has won his last 2 races, both here over a mile and both with Buick aboard, but is badly drawn today and we shall oppose him with the two top-weights Good Luck Charm (Gary Moore/Fergus Sweeney) and Kung Hei Fat Choy (James GIven/ Jim Crowley), who both ran well enough over this CD last time.

Betting forecast Carlisle:
1. Race: Little Glenshee - Rowdy Rocher - Billy Cuckoo
2. Race: Astrum - Assirem - Divine Port
3. Race: Ifandbutwhynot - Premier Grand Cru - Stopped Out
4. Race: Spanish Fleet - Just Chilly - Baltic Pathfinder
5. Race: Shutthefrontdoor - Mickie - Vintage Star
6. Race: Presence Felt - Whats Up Woody - Shouldavboughtgold
7. Race: Court Dismissed - Bronco Billy - Corner Creek