Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Glorious Goodwood: second day

Glorious Goodwood continues with another high class card. The track has been watered, but the going is still certain to be very fast. This will not suit Kingman (John Gosden/ James Doyle), but he still looks the one to beat in the Group One Sussex Stakes over a mile at 17.05 CET. His only defeat so far was in the 2,000 Guineas and that form has been well franked anyway. Unfortunately he and Toronado (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) have frightened off most of the opposition, so that we have only 4 runners here and it is hard to imagine the otjher two getting a look in. Toronado won this last year and will definitely prefer this ground, so there is probably llttle between the pair.
There are two more Group races here, the Gordon Stakes at 16.30 and the Vintage Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.40. The latter race has been dominated by the Hannon stable in recent years, and they now have two runners: Dr. No (Ryan Moore) and the once-raced Tupi (Richard Hughes). Form choice is Ahlan Emerati (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer) runner-up last time to the very smart Kool Kompany in Ireland; however that one is also trained by Hannon, so he should know where he stands. Highland Reef (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is moving up in grade, but is the obvious danger.
The Gordon Stakes over 1 1/ 2 miles for 3yo´s is a major St.Leger Trial and is usually won by a subsequent Group One horse. Red Galileo (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) has not run since finishing fifth in the Derby, but that form could still be good enough. We also liked the way German-bred Scotland (Andrew Balding/ JIm Crowley)ran on at Ascot, where he finished in front of Snow Sky (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) and he is the danger. In theory Somewhat (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) must also have a good chance, having finished third at 100-1 in the Eclipse, but we are a bit dubious about that form.
Johnston has in any case good prospects of winning the opening Goodwood Stakes over 2 miles 5 furlongs with Maid in Rio (Fanning). It is most unusual for a 3yo to take on older horses over this extreme trip, but this fily, who has won 5 of her last 6 starts, won so easily last week at Ascot that we would not put anything beyond her.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maid In Rio - Lieutenant Miller - Ray Ward
2. Race: Snow Sky - Observational - Somewhat
3. Race: Toronado - Outstrip - Darwin
4. Race: Highland Reel - Ahlan Emarati - Tupi

5. Race: Shahah - Avenue Du Monde - Royal Razalma
6. Race: Patterned - Hiking - Principle Equation
7. Race: Englishman - Liberty Jack - George Rooke