Monday, July 28, 2014

Galway Festival starts today

two of the most pleasant summer meetings will be held this week, Glorious Goodwood in southern England, which starts tomorrow, and the Galway Festival in the west of Ireland which starts today and goes on all week.
There is one simple rule to betting at Galway; bet everything trained by Dermot Weld, regardless of form. The Curragh trainer has an amazing record here and clearly targets this meeting. This is of course no secret and punters as well as bookmakers are well aware of this, so one must also consider if the odds reflect any value, but we can certainly expect a dozen winners this week from the Weld stable.
He can start with Manhattan Swing (Davy Russell) in the very first race, a novice hurdle for 4yo´s at 18.10 CET. This has attracted a good field, but Weld has won this race 6 times and knows what is required. His next runner is Postulation (Pat Smullen) in the 2yo maiden an hour later; Aidan O´ Brien also does well at this fixture and his Jamaica, with son Joseph aboard, is the obvious danger. Between them Weld and O´Brien have won the last 8 runnings of this.
Weld has also won 4 of the last 7 editions of the amateur riders 2 mile handicap at 19.45, the most valuable race of the day. He has two runners here, Pay Day Kitten (Robbie McNamara) and Grecian Tiger (RP Quinlan); the former is probably the stable´s main hope, but we would certainly not discount the latter at these weights.
McNamara also partners Call Vinnie in the final bumper at 21.15, bought quite expensively after winning a point to point and makiing his rules debut here. In between, Pat Smullen partners two 3yo´s in handicaps, Bobby´s Heart over 7 furlongs at 20.15 and the Aga Khan´s Timiyan over 1 1/2 miles half an hour later; they are both unexposed, but these races look quite tricky. But we would certainly be surprised if Weld does not end the day with at least two winners, and probably more.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Manhattan Swing - Mckinley - Ridestan
2. Race: Oscar Vespasian - King Blue - Artful Artist
3. Race: Jamaica - Vocaliser - Vicarage
4. Race: Wither Hills - Gambling Girl - Fire Fighter
5. Race: Ashtaroth - Tom Dooley - Botanical Lady
6. Race: Annus Mirabilis - Resiliency - Primogeniture
7. Race: Call Vinnie - Flight Plan - Lucky Pat