Saturday, June 21, 2014

Royal Ascot: final four: Diamond Jubilee

Today is the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot with another extremely high class card headed by the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 6 furlongs at 17.25 CET. It is another sunny day and going is certain to be very fast, horses that need soft ground have been out of luck this week. The evidence so far shows clearly that horses drawn on the stands side (high numbers) have an advantage in races on the straight course and, although this can change, we expect this trend to continue today and will confine our tips to horses that we consider to be well drawn.

This could therefore be a problem for Aljamasheer (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan), who is drawn 6 but would otherwise be a strong fancy. He has been running over a mile - and was runner-up in the Queen Anne here last year- but looks as if a furious and stiff 6 furlongs would be ideal. Slade Power (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan) is also drawn low, although he is likely to start favourite. He runs in the same colours as Sole Power, who won the Kings Stand here on Tuesday and is himself a CD winner It would be a fantastic result for the stable and the owner, Sabena Power (mother of Paddy) if they can bring off the double, but the draw and the fast ground are not in his favour. There are 3 more Irish runners, all with chances and 2 of them trained by Aidan O´Brien, Darwin (with son Joseph in the saddle) and Due Diligence (Ryan Moore); the latter is one of two 3yo´s in the field- fhe other being Astaire (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer), and although we respect them both, we don´t think a 3yo can beat his elders in a race of this nature this early in the season.

The other Irish runner is even worse drawn- Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ William Buick), although he has arguably the best form. He won the Prix de la Foret in 2012 and was runner-up last year in that race to Moonlight Cloud, who famously almost defeated the great Black Caviar in this race 2 years ago. However he is another one who might not like the ground and he has had a pretty hard time of it already this year, with his last 2 races coming in Australia and Hong Kong.

There has not been a French winner here so far this week, but American Devil (Eric Libaud/ Pierre-Charles Boudot) looks a really interesting outsider. We were impressed by the way he won last time at Longchamp, and although this is a far tougher race, we make him our each-way suggestion. Despite their poor draw, Aljamasheer and Slade Power should not be far away,

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dick Whittington - Toscanini - Crown The Kitten
2. Race: Arab Spring - Groundbreaking - Hamelin
3. Race: Telescope - Hillstar - Eye Of The Storm
4. Race: Slade Power - Aljamaaheer - Due Diligence
5. Race: Ninjago - Rocky Ground - Seeking Magic
6. Race: Tiger Cliff - El Salvador - Brass Ring