Royal Ascot: day three: Gold Cup

it´s Ladies Day at Royal Ascot with the Gold Cup at 17.25 the main event and probably the best stayers race of the year with a very strong field including a German runner with good prospects: Andreas Wöhler´s Altano with Eddie Pedroza in the saddle. He is one of the few runners who can be guaranteed to stay the distance of 2 1/2 miles and he won the Cadran last year over this trip as well as finishing fifth here. He is again faced by 2013 winner, the Queen´s Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and runner-up Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Frankie Dettori), but the Queen´s mare, a daughter of Monsun, has had an interrupted preparation and is hard to fancy here. She has not run since beaten over 2 miles here in October, in a race win by Royal Diamond (Johnny Murtagh/ Richard Hughes) with several of these behind. However half a mile further is a hige differenc and plenty of 2-milers have failefd to stay the full trip. The question mark here is Leading Light (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), who won the Queens Vase here last year (2 miles) as well as the St.Leger (1 3/4). He is the highest-rated runner and would certainly win over 2 miles, but the distance could be a problem; however we believe he can do it and his trainer has an excellent record here. The fast going will also be a help, while it will definitely count against some of the others, notably Altano, Tac de Boitron (Marco Botti( Martin Harley) and Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), beaten favourite in the 2011 German Derby. Another runner with German connections is Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), by Lomitas out of a Big Shuffle mare, but he is probably our of his depth here. Obviously we hope that Altano will run well, bit some rain would be welcome, and it does not come, we will side with Leading Light.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Great War - Baitha Alga - Mukhmal
2. Race: Cannock Chase - Mutakayyef - Barley Mow
3. Race: Vazira - Inchila - Bracelet
4. Race: Leading Light - Brown Panther - Estimate
5. Race: Idea - Table Rock - Third Dimension
6. Race: Windshear - Elite Army - Carlo Bugatti