Friday, June 13, 2014

Friday the thirteenth!

some very tricky races today with very competitve handicaps, so we shall need all the luck that is going on Friday the thirteenth. There is plenty of racing, including jumping this evening at Aintree and Clonmel, but by far the best card is at York. The best race here is the fillies handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.10 CET. Most of these have met before, and Bondesire (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) won a similar event at Chester in May from Royal Rascal (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) and Love Island (Richard Whitaker/ Ryan Moore). At the revised weights there should be little between this trio, but we fancy Royal Rascal, who has already won 3 times over this CD. Godolphin´s Mar Mar, who is very consistent but rarely wins, could be a big danger and so is bottom weight Willbeme (Neil Bycroft/ Andrew Miullen). The 1 3/4 mile handicap that follows half an hour later looks wide open, but we like German-bred Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Paul Hanagan), a useful hurdler but who should also be capable of winning a flat race at this level. His own brother Liquido won the German and Italian St. Leger, and he would not need to be anywhere near as good to score here. The 7 furlongs handicap at 16.40 is another tricky one. O´Meara has 3 runners here, with Tudfhope on Duibai Hillsd, who is up 8 lbs for an easy win at Haydock, while Johnny Cavagin (Richard Guest/ Steve FDonohoe) and Dusky Queen (Richjard fahey/ Ryan Moore) are also up in the weights after winning last time; the latter scored over this CD, but it was a close thing and he no longer seems so well handicapped. There are likely to be some improvers in the 3yo handicap over 10 furlongs at 15.30; Connecticut (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) and Tabreek (Richard Hannon/ Paul Hanagan) could both be well handicapped after easily winning their maidens, but Snow Squall (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa), who is more exposed but could improve for his recent change of stables could be a big threat.
The mile handicap for 3yo fillies at 16.15 at Sandown is another open race. Token of Love (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes) is the obvious favourite here, but it is by no means that simple, and we wonder if she concede 8 lbs to the well-bred Darting (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy), having her first run in a handicap off a very reasonable rating. The 10 furlongs handicap for older horses at 16.50 sees CD specialist Chain of Events (Michael Wigham/ William Buick) and Kastini (Denis Coakley/ Hughes) renew rivalry. When they met here a forttnight ago, the former just got the upper hand, but the latter is now 2 lbs better off, so there should be little in it.

Betting forecast at York:
1. Race: Al Gomry - Pres Rapide - Fast Lola
2. Race: Tabreek - Arabian Comet - Connecticut
3. Race: Studio Star - Sudest - Binky Blue
4. Race: Dusky Queen - Foxtrot Romeo - Dubai Hills
5. Race: Love Island - Royal Rascal - Bondesire
6. Race: Phaenomena - Bin Singspiel - Totalize
7. Race: Saved By The Bell - High Office - Mallory Heights