Saturday, April 26, 2014

Strong card at Sandown to end N.H. season

The British jumps season officially ends today with an extremely strong card at Sandown, featuring the Celebration Chase over 2 miles at 16.15 CET, run for the first time as a Grade One today. It is not a race to bet on, as Sire de Grugy (Gary and Jamie Moore) looks a near certainty and will start at long odds-on. With Sprinter Sacre and other stars out of action, he currently has no serious rival in the 2 mile department and has won 7 of his last 8 starts, including this race last year and the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Barring mishaps we cannot see his getting beaten today, and veteran French Opera (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), winner of this in 2011 and 4th and 5th in the two following years, may follow him home.

The most valuable race on the card, and the big betting race, is the bet365 Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 16.50 with 19 runners. This is also the last leg of the Scoop 6 and anyone who gets it up will not only become an instant millionaire but will also have to be a genius - or freakishly lucky. Stamina and jumping ability are required and many of these runners have met before, several of them in the Scottish Grand National, where Godsmejudge (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), who finished second, did best. If he can repeat that form, he would have a good chance but that was only a fortnight ago and we would rather look elsewhere. From the handicapping point of view, Same Difference (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) is the obvious place to start; he was runner-up last year and is now better handicapped. He was well behind Spring Heeled (Jim Culloty/ Davy Russell) at Cheltenham, but meets that one on much better terms now. It has been raining and every further drop jhat falls will improve the chances of Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville) and Restless Harry (Robin Dickin/ Chatlie Poste) and they both come on to our short list in this very open affair.

The card opens with another very tricky handicap for 4yo hurdlers and Paul Nicholls, who will be crowned champion trainer for the 9th time today, can take this with the consistent Keltus (Nick Scholfield), with last week´s Towcester winner Stiff Upper Lip (Oliver Sherwood/ Thomas Garner) the main danger. Nicholls aims to finish the season with a fllourish and has fancied runners in every race, including top-weight Sound Investment (Scholfield) and bottom-weight Vesperal Dream (Twiston-Davies) in the novices handicap chase at 18.00; however we are afraid of Christopher Wren (Nick Gifford/ Tom Cannon) here, a recent winner on the flat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Keltus - Saint Jerome - Raven`s Tower
2. Race: Menorah - Rolling Aces - Hunt Ball
3. Race: Special Tiara - French Opera - Pepite Rose
4. Race: Same Difference - Roalco De Farges - Ardkilly Witness

5. Race: Medinas - Southfield Theatre - Polly Peachum
6. Race: Foundation Man - Sound Investment - Ballincurrig
7. Race: L`Unique - Kaylif Aramis - Henryville