Sunday, April 27, 2014

Dermot Weld the man to follow today

A very weak programme for a Sunday, and even the Irish cards are not up to much. The only black type race of the day is the listed race for fillies and mares over 9 1/2 furlongs at 16.35 CET at Gowran Park, which we expect to go to the only 3yo in the field, I´m Yours (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). In fact Weld, a trainer we hold in the highest regard and who has started 2014 in great form, could be the man to follow today, as his 3 other runners all have winning chances as well: Sparkle Factor at 15.35 (Liam Roche), Sereza at 17.05 and Good Tradition an hour later, both partnered by Smullen. Sereza is owned by the Aga Khan, the others are all run in the colours of Weld´s biggest owner, Moyglare Stud.

There are some huge fields at the Irish jumps meeting at Limerick, but there is very little quality on view. Lord Adare (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) should win the maiden hurdle at 16.20 but will be at a very short price, while Italian Riviera (Eric McNamara/ Paul Townend) can take the other maiden hurdle at 15.20 and Rafi de Triana (Liz Doyle/ Brian O´Connell) the beginners chase at 17.20.

The flat racing at Ayr is also undistinguished. The most interesting feature perhaps is that Jim Goldie trains 8 of the 15 runners in the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.30. He might have an idea as to which of them is best, but we certainly don´t and therefore select the top weight Diamond Blue (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton).

The only racing in England is the all-weather fixture at Kempton. Paul Nicholls was yesterday crowned champion N.H. Trainer for the 9th time, but unlike his great jumps rival Nicky Henderson, he has very few winners on the flat. However we expect him to take the 2 mile handicap here with Ranjaan (Ryan Moore), who ran really well when a close 4th in a much stronger race over this CD a month ago. The most interesting races otherwise are the two divisions of the fillies maiden at 16.45 and 17.15, but with little or no form to go on, they are no good for betting purposes; the runners owned by Khaled Abdullah and Godolphin look the ones to concentrate on.

Gowran Park - betting forecast:
1. Race: Zaindera - Chance To Dance - Angel Of Joy
2. Race: Glassatura - Kanes Pass - C`est Ma Souer
3. Race: Fix It - Northern Surprise - Share A Secret
4. Race: I`m Yours - Exotic - Mizzava
5. Race: Sereza - Tirghra - Spirited
6. Race: Liberty To Rock - Zero Euro - Trans City
7. Race: Falkirk - Good Tradition - Abushamah