Thursday, April 10, 2014

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, but although the flat season has started, all 3 afternoon cards in the U.K. are jumps meetings. There is flat racing this evening on the all-weather at Kempton., while flat racing in Ireland is at Limerick., where Dermot Weld., who has started the season in tremendous fashion, looks the trainer to follow. He has runners in 4 races and could well win them all. Stable jockey Pat Smullen partners Bush Pilot at 24.55 CET, Sparkle Factor half an hour later and Hisaabaat in the 11 furlongs handicap at 17.25, who looks extremely well treated. He has very good form over hurdles as does Waaheb (Fran Berry), who runs in the maiden over the same trip at 16.55 and should certainly win. There are only 3 runners in the final conditions race at 17.55, where possibly the 4yo filly Cosmic Cannonball, (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) can make her fitness advantage tell - she scored at Galway last Saturday- against two listed class opponents who are much higher rated. There is also a very small field in the main event at Kempton this evening, a 3yo handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 20.40, where all 4 runners are last-time-out winners. Top-weight Festival Theatre (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) is entered in the Derby and must win this to have any realistic hope, but German-bred Wonder Weapon (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), a BBAG purchase, has just as much chance in our view this evening.
Two German-breds that catch our eye over jumps are Lamoool (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne), who makes his British debut in a handicap chase at 16.00 at Ludlow, and Marleno (Tony Middleton/ James Banks) who has top weight in a very modest handicap at 15.40 at Towcester. He is no star, but is dropped in grade here and miust have a sporting e.w. chance. Lamool is a different matter; he was a very useful 3yo in Germany for Eckhard Sauren, and has run well over jumps in France, winning a chase at Strasbourg when last seen in October. Obviously he is not easy for the U.K. handicapper to assess, but he could have been let in here lightly.
Tim Vaughan´s main Jockey Richard Johnson is at Taunton and can win ther maiden hurdle at 15.50 on LIberty Court. He had decent form in 2012, but then something clearly went wrong; if he is anywhere near his old form, he should win today. We also like Solar Sky (David Elsworth/ David Bass) in the second division of the same race. Johnson also partners Waving for Tony Carroll here at 17.20. His poor hurdles form was all a long time ago and pretty meaningless, but he has won 5 races on the flat this year - admittedly all poor races at Wolverhampton.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Saint Jerome - Rascal - Sparville
2. Race: Speed Master - Tante Sissi - Phase Shift
3. Race: Maypole Lass - Magic Money - Dog Or Divorce
4. Race: Great Value - Divine Intavention - Gardefort
5. Race: Chat Room - Springinherstep - Somemothersdohavem
6. Race: Buck Mulligan - Rockiteer - First Fandango
7. Race: Speedy Tunes - Helium - Hold Court