Thursday, March 13, 2014

World Hurdle at Cheltenham

today´s top race at the Cheltenham Festival is the World Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.20 CET and once again we have the old champion taking on the younger challenger. So far the younger brigade has come out on top this week, but this time the oldtimers are represented by the admirable Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), who has won this race already 4 times. He missed last year´s renewal because on injury, but made a good comeback over this CD in Januasry, only weakening Close home on ground that was much too heavy for him. The going today - despite the watering last night and the fog currently blanketing the track- will be much more to his liking. His young jockey was criticised for that defeat, but we don´t agree, he did nothing wrong in our eyes and has been fully supported by his owner and trainer. Nicholls has in fact entered 4 here and no doubt a tactical race is likely, with the same owner´s Celestial Hero (Daryl Jacob) setting the pace.
The one he has to beat is very clearly the unbeaten mare Annie Power (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), who is not only 10 from 10 but also represents the most powerful Cheltenham team of all. On top of that Ruby was Big Bucks´ regular jockey for 5 years and knows all about him. The bookies have already made up their minds, and make Annie Power the hot favourite, but we are not so sure and at the current odds prefer the old champion. He is a proven stayder, while the mare has nebver run beyond 2 1/2 miles. To be true, she is bred like a stayer (being by German Derby winner Shirocco out of an Old Vic mare out of a German Oaks winner) and runs like one, but she has never yet faced a stayer as strong as Big Bucks. In addition , being by Shirocco she probably prefers softer ground than she will encounter today. She could well win today and prove herself to be a true champion, but at the likely 6-4 we don´t think she is a good bet.
We definitely expect one of the above-mentioned to win, but it is a strong field and by no means a two-horse race. Big owner JP McManus, who had the first two in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, has two stróng contenders - At Fishers Cross (Tony McCoy) and More of That (Barry Geraghty). The former was unbearen in 6 starts last dseason, including the Albert Barrtlett at the Festival and also finished just ahead of Big Bucks last time, but he might prefer softer ground, and we prefer the relatively unexposed More of That, who beat another Nicholls runner Salubrious in good style here in December.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Felix Yonger - Wonderful Charm - Oscar Whisky
2. Race: Fingal Bay - If In Doubt - Josies Orders
3. Race: Al Ferof - Benefficient - Dynaste
4. Race: Annie Power - Big Buck`S - At Fishers Cross
5. Race: Colour Squadron - Tap Night - Sraid Padraig

6. Race: Indian Castle - Cause Of Causes - Balnaslow