Monday, March 03, 2014

3 very poor meetings today

with Cheltenham just around the corner, there is not likely to be much classy pport on view this week and that is certainly the case today, with some low grade jumping from Southwell and all-weather racing to Lingfield and Kempton. 13 of the 14 races at the two all-weather tracks are class 5 or worse, the only exception being the 11 furlongs handicap at Kempton at 18.15 CET. Top-weight Peace Seeker (Tony and William Carson) is very consistent and has a good course record, as does Light From Mars (Ron Harris/ Liam Jones); these two look the most likely contenders in an open affair. Carson could also go close on Lawnay Hill´s recent CD winner Mighty Mambo an hour earlier, bit we just prefer course specialist Shalambar (Tony Carroll/ Jim Crowley). The Samum gelding Ordensritter, who had decent form in Germany when trained by Horst Steinmetz, has top weight here; he was also a CD winner last time, but that was a year ago and he is best watched for now.
If there are any better class horses running today, they will be found in the 10 furlongs maiden at 17.15 at Lingfield. We are thinking mainly of the 3yo´s Duke of Heroes (Jeremy Noseda/ Andrea Atzeni) and Roskilly (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), both of whom are well-bred and should stay this trip well enough. The runners in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.20 are much more exposed; Afkar (Clive Brittain/ Tom Queally) has only won once from 26 starts but is well handicapped and can get his veteran trainer off the mark for 2014.
The going at Southwell is still on the heavy side and there are quite a few non-runners. Best bet here is Cloud Creeper (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) in the novice hurdle at 16.00; he has been runner-up 5 timres in 10 starts and can finally get his head in front here. Green Wizard (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania) has been pulled up 3 times in his last 4 starts but can still take the handicap chase at 15.30, while recent winners Barton Rose (Neil Mulholland/ Noel Fehily) and Powertakeoff (Henry Oliver/ Paddy Brennan) can follow up under extra weight at 16.35 and 17.35 respectively.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Callisto Light - Spirit Of Gondree - Warbond
2. Race: Maahir - Watersmeet - Mount Shamsan
3. Race: Russian Ice - Athletic - Presumido
4. Race: Shalambar - The Absent Mare - Bert The Alert
5. Race: Mill I Am - Harvest Mist - Two In The Pink
6. Race: Mac`S Power - Light From Mars - Glastonberry
7. Race: Litmus - Ladies Dancing - Petersboden