Tuesday, March 04, 2014

3 more poor meetings today

once again, poor sport at today´s 3 meetings and the ground continues to be very bad on the grass tracks. Therre will be some small fields at both Exeter and Newcastle, especially the latter course, where no fewer than 4 races have only 4 runners. Donald ;McCain looks the trainer to follow and can take the opening race at 15.20 CET with the penalised Stonebrook (Tony McCoy´s only ride of the day) and can follow up with Wild Card at 17.20 and Storming Gale half an hour later, both partnered by stable jockey Jason Maguire. Best bet however could be Be Bop Boru (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) at 16.20; he showed much improved form to record a very easy win last Wednesday at Wincanton and a 7 lbs penalty should not stop him from going in again.
The best race at Exeter is the Devon National over 3 3/4 miles at 16.00, which will be a gruelling test under these conditions. The Clyda Rover (Helen Nelmes/ Paul Moloney) won it last year, with Musical Wedge (Claire Dyson/ Jamie Moore), but the ground was much better then and we do not fancy them today. The top weights Flying Award (Sue and Lucy Gardner) and Alderluck (David Pipe/ Mikey Ennis) have proven form in these extreme staying races, but perhaps lightly-weighted Armedanddangerous (Tom Gretton/ Dougie Costello) will be the answer; he is trying this trip for the first time, but runs as he is can get this far and goes well on the heavy.
The fields are bigger on the all-weather at Southwell, but only 4 run in the race that will attract the most interest: the seller over 11 furlongs at 15.40, in which Stand Guard (John Butler/ Tom Queally) will attempt to equal the all-weather record of 25 wins. He was expected to do this last time at Lingfield, but was beaten at 7-1 on, but in theory he should win today with Staff Sergeant (Michael Appleby/ Andrew Mullen) booked for second place.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Royal Opera - Here`s Herbie - Superciliary
2. Race: Bobble Boru - Buckboru - Molly Maid
3. Race: Five Star Wilsham - Alderluck - Armedanddangerous
4. Race: Beforeall - Ballytober - Farmer Matt
5. Race: Chinatown Boy - Capote - Saint Breiz
6. Race: Revaader - Rugged Jack - Milor De La Borie