Wednesday, February 05, 2014

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, but all at a low level. On top of that there are some small fields, especially at the two N.H. meetings in the U.K., where the going will be very heavy.
Ludlow´s handicap chsse over 2 1/2 miles at 15.40 CETis actually one of their most valuable races of the year, but the field is nothing special. Gallox Bridge (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) has arguably the best form, but we cannot fancy him with top weight in this going. Elenika (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) rarely wins, but his team is in top form, so he must be considered. Tony Dinozzo (Peter Bowen/ Jamie Moore) was an easy winner on heavy goiing, then fell at the last when looking the likely winner; he must have a chance, but has twice been a non-runner recently. This leaves us with Buywise (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), who is up in grade after two easy wins on heavy ground; he is up 18 lbs in the ratings, but we can think that he can manage it and he is the selection. Another hat-trick seeker is Alex Dunn´s Come On Annie at 16.15, and she can score again at the main expense of Benefique Royale (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob).
The runner that most interests us on a very uninspiring card at Carlisle is Next Hight (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) in the handicap hurdle at 17.00. He is out of German classic winner Next Petticoat and hence a half-brother to Derby winner Next Desert. He clearly does not have the class of those two, but finally came good last time and can defy an 11 lbs rise in the weights here. The trainer can follow up with another last time winner Baltic Pathfinder(Shane Byrne) half an hour later.
The fields at the N. Irish meeeting at Down Royal are much bigger, but the quality is still missing. The most interesting race could be the maiden hurdle at 15.50. Both Leavethelighton (Eamonn Doyle/ MP Butler) and Quickasyoucan (Colm McBratney/ SW Flanagan) ran well enough last time to suggest that they can win a race of this nature, but possibly Couleur France (Noel Meade/ Paulk Carberry) will outpoint them all.
On the all-weather we think that Sea Soldier (Andrew Balding/ Rob Hornby), third over this CD last Saturday,. can win the 7 furlongs handicap at Lingfield at 17.40, while the trainer could also have a winner over the same distance this evening at 20.00 with Pool House (David Probert), although these small field handicaps are generally bad betting races.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Edlomond - Spirit River - Arrayan
2. Race: Edmund Kean - The Romford Pele - Shays River
3. Race: Buywise - Tony Dinozzo - Forest Walker
4. Race: Top Totti - Benefique Royale - Come On Annie
5. Race: Minella Reception - Daveron - Tedney Express
6. Race: Foundry Square - Pearlysteps - Made In Time
7. Race: Ampleforth - Tara Road - Oscar`s Pet