Tolworth Hurdle now at Kempton today

The Grade One Tolworth Hurdle for novices over 2 miles should have been run at last Saturday´s abandoned Sandown meeting, but has now been switched to today´s Kempton meeting at 14.35 CET, and although there are only 6 runners, it looks a really hot race. Willie Mullins, whose novices have been winning everything in sight in Ireland, sends over Upazo (Ruby Walsh), who has won his last 2 races very easily, but faces much tougher opposition now. Nicky Henderson, another expert handler of novice hurdlers, saddles two: Josses Hill, a convincing winner of his only start over sticks, with stable jockey Barry Geraghty, and Royal Boy (Tony McCoy), who was third in this last year (at Sandown), but whose latest win came over a much longer distance. The distance could also be a problem for The Liquidator (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), a top bumper horse last season, as the trainer has declared that he would have been much better suited by the stiffer Sandown track, but the very soft going will be to his advantage. Grade la Victoire( Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) ran a good race at Cheltenham last time, while Prince Siegfried (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) is in oiur view ther most interesting runner. On flat form he is certainly the best horse in the field, but that does not always work out over hurdles. However he ran a great race at Ascot last time, before falling at the last when upsides with Irving. He would not have beaten Irving, but we regard that one as the best novice in England, which gives Prince Siegfried a definite chance here.

We may be wrong about the Mullins/Walsh runners, but we also go against their Twinlight in the listed chase over 2 1/ 2 miles at 15.10 despite his impressive Irish form. However that was always over 2 miles, and we are not sure that he will stay the extra half mile today; his German dam was a daughter of Big Shuffle, hardly a guarantee of stamina. For us Captain Chris (Hobbs/ Johnson) and Champion Court (Martin Keighley/ McCoy) are the more solid options. There is very little between them on their form in Huntingdon´s Peterborough Chase a month ago, where Champion Court was rather unlucky, but we still just prefer the Hobbs runner because of his excellent Kempton record.

Because of the extra race, the carde opens early at 12.55 with a 4yo hurdle, which could go to the debutant Goodwood Mirage (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy), who was listed class on the flat and goes well on the ground. The handicaps are of course very tricky, though we shall stay loyal to German-bred Lyvius (Henderson/ Geraghty), a half-brother to Lucky Speed, in the final hurdle race at 16.50, even though he is not so well handicapped now and the ground is not ideal. The big betting race is the valuable hurdle handicap over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.40. Saphir du Rheu (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) and Junction Fourteen (Emma Lavelle/ Johnson) have both been put up more than a stone for their latest easy victories. We hope that German-bred Home Run (Pipe/ Tom Bellamy) can reverse the Sandown form with Saphir du Rheu on these much better terms, while our other two fancies are River Maigue (Henderson/ Geraghty) and the very consistent Spirit of Shankly (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Goodwood Mirage - Sun Wild Life - Grey Blue
2. Race: Ice `N` Easy - Toby Lerone - Barlow
3. Race: Minella On Line - Spencer Lea - Back In June
4. Race: The Liquidator - Upazo - Josses Hill
5. Race: Twinlight - Captain Chris - Champion Court
6. Race: Junction Fourteen - Saphir Du Rheu - If In Doubt
7. Race: Relax - Good Order - Buddy Bolero
8. Race: Deep Trouble - Lyvius - Moujik Borget