Friday, January 17, 2014

Musselburgh only N.H. racing today

Musselburgh stages the only N.H. racing today and has an interesting card; the Edinburgh area has not been so badly affected by the weather as most other parts of the U.K. and the good to soft going will give opportunities to horses unsuited by the heavy ground everywhere else.
This gives Clever Cookie (Peter Niven/ Keith Renwick) a chance in the handicap hurdle at 15.45 CET; he has been first or second on all his starts so far and seems to prefer good ground. Discovery Bay (Brian Ellison/ Tony McCoy) is an obvious danger and as a son of Dansili should also appreciate this better going. McCoy also has prospects on Steve Gollings´ Bar de Ligne in the following handicap chase, but here we are also interested in The Knoxs (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania), who has been pulled up on 3 of his 4 starts for this trainer but was much higher rated earlier for Paul Nicholls and could well come back to form today. Irish-trained Mister First (Robbie Hennessy/ Tom O´Brien) is another possibility in a very open race. The McCoy ride which interests us most is David O´Meara´s German-bred Maison de Ville in the mares novice hurdle at 15.15; owned by Hoppegarten boss Gerhard Schöningh, she has a good jumping pedigree and we would not be at all surprised to see her run a big race here.
There are 3 all-weather meetings today, consisting mainly of rubbishy handicaps. The two better races have tiny fields, for example at 16.00 at Lingfield where there are only 4 runners in the 1 1/2 mile race; but they include Castilo del Diablo (David Simcock/ Adam Kirby) and Modernstone (Will Knight/ Andrea Atzeni), recently separated by a neck when first and second in a valuable handicap over this CD. The latter is slightly worse off at the weights, but could still reverse the form this time.
Even more interesting is the conditions race over 9 1/2 furlongs at 20.00 at Wolverhampton, in which Jackalberry (Marco Botti/ Kirby), whose last run was a Group Two victory at the Dubai Carnival, makres his comeback before returning to Meydan. However this trip is too short for the 2012 Melbourne Cup third, and it may pay to take him on with CD specialist Come On Blue Chip (Paul D´Arcy/ Sean Levey), even though he has no theoretical chance on ratings.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Twice Lucky - Gibbstown - Call Me Mulligan
2. Race: Western Approaches - Lac Sacre - Spin Cast
3. Race: Brijomi Queen - Cloudante - Morning With Ivan
4. Race: Clever Cookie - Sky Khan - Sud Pacifique
5. Race: Drumlang - Storming Gale - Bar De Ligne
6. Race: Racing Europe - Gurkha Brave - Warriors Tale