Sunday, December 29, 2013

top hurdlers clash at Leopardstown

once again the big race ofg the day will be run at Leopardstown- the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle over 2 miles at 15.00 CET. Only 5 runners, but they include the 3 main Irish hopes for the Champion Hurdle, including the champion himself: Hurricane Fly (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), winner already of 17 Grade One races, a world record, including Cheltenham twice and also this race twice. He has won 18 of his 20 starts and has only been beaten once in the past 4 years. Of today´s opponents, Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ Mark Walsh) and Thousand Stars (Mullins/ Paul Townend) were well behind him here last year and, smart though they are, we cannot imagine their holding a winning chance today. However the other two runners are the biggest challenge tzhat Hurricane Fly has faced for some time- Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ Tony McCoy) winner of 7 of his last 8 races, and Our Conor (Dessie Hughes/ Danny Mullins) unbeaten in 4 starts over hurdles including his mightily impressive Triumph Hurdle win at Cheltenham. Since then he has run once unplaced on the flat and our instinct tells us that the 4yo will not yet be ready for this test. We could be wrong, but for us Jezki is the main danger to the champion and his defeat of Zaidpour last timer reads even better after that one´s victory here yesterday. However Hurricane Fly is still the one to beat, and even though latest win was not particularly impressive, we expect him to be near his best form and to put the young challengers in their place today. He turns 10 next week and sooner or later will again taste defeat, but we think he can keep his winning run going for some time yet.
Willie Mullins should also take the Mares Hurdle at 15.35, where his two runners Upsie (McCoy) and Urticaire (Davy Russell) should dominate the opposition; Upsie is still unbeaten but looks a bit difficult and we would not be surprised to see the other one, an easy winner of her only Irish start, score this time. Ruby Walsh does not ride here but is back for the Grade One Novice Chase at 16.05 where he partners Pat Fahy´s Morning Assembly, who looks a big prospect after winning his first 2 chases in excellent style. Bright New Dawn (Hughes/ Russell) and Carlingford Lough (Jon Kiely/ McCoy) are however two tough nuts to crack and over this trip the last-named could possibly come out on top.
There is also N.H. racing in Ireland at Limetrick and in the U.K. at Kelso, but both at a much lower level, however the Doncaster card Looks strong and we expect Paul Nicholls and Daryl Jacob to go back home with some more victories to tjheir credit. However our longshot of the day is Rock a Doodle Doo (Sally Hall/ Andrew Thornton) in the novices handicap hurdle at 15.55; this is a very tricky race, but the handicapper seems to have the prolific flat scorer a serious chance with this rating.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wrong Turn - Baily Dusk - Down Under
2. Race: Sea Light - Dawerann - Roman General
3. Race: Rockdown - Shanahan`s Turn - Blue Bicycle
4. Race: Our Conor - Jezki - Thousand Stars
5. Race: Urticaire - Jennies Jewel - Theatre Bird
6. Race: Morning Assembly - Bright New Dawn - Carlingford Lough

7. Race: Yes Sir Brian - Value At Risk - Fort Smith