Chepstow and Newbury

the main U.K. meetings today are at Chepstow and Newbury, both of which stage Grade One races. But the Newbury card is very disappointing with small fields in every race, and only 6 run in the Challow Novices Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 14.45 CET. The very lightly-raced Captain Cutter (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) and Times Remembered (Emma Lavelle/ Aidan Coleman) are the obvious candidates here. We go for the latter, who should be able to reverse Cheltenham placings with Creepy )Martin Keighley/ Iam Popham) on 7 lbs better terms. Our other fancy here is Restless Harry (Robin Dickin/ Charlie Pose) in the staying handicap chase at 14.15; after a string of poor performances he has come a long way down the ratings and as he today has the heavy ground he needs, he will find conditions ideal.
The Chepstow card is much more interesting, although the Grade One 3yo hurdle at 15.00 has cut up very badly, and now has only 5 runners, none of which really look championship material. 3 of them previously ran in France and as we cannot assess the form properly, we go for Violet Dancer (Gary and Jamie Moore), who was no good on the flat but has been a revelation over hurdles, twice winning with ther greatest of ease.
Gary Moore has put his youngest son Josh, a 3 lbs claimer, on the well fancied Well Refreshed in the big betting race of the day, the Welsh Grand National over 3 miles 5 1/2 furlongs on heavy ground at 15.35. He has a chance, but so do plenty of others and his poor jumping makes him a dodgy proposition in our view. Two class horses have made a mockery of the handicap, with almost every runner receiving tons of weight from Tidal Bay (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/ Patrick Corbett), narrowly beaten here last year when a hot favuourite; however he has not run since finishing third in the Grand National proper and is not well handicapped, so we strongly prefer Tital Bay, one of our favourite horses. Even at almost 13 years of age and with this huge burden, he still looks the one to beat, and it is significant that Nicholls - in fantastic form- sends his main jockey here to ride. Highland Lodge (Emma Lavelle/ Leighton Aspell) and Merry King (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon), 4th and 5th in the Hennessy, could obviously be in the money again, but the two lightweights we most fancy are Irish raider Goonyella (Jim Dreaper/ Andrew Lynch), who will love the heavy going, and Vintage Star (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania), who is 4 lbs better off for a neck beating by Hey Big Spender (Colin and Joe Tizzard) last time. Obviously a valuable handicap with 20 runners is never easy and luck will also play its part, but if Tidal Bay is within sight of the leaders two out, we think his tremendous finishing speed will win him the day.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ceasar Milan - Deputy Dan - Minella On Line
2. Race: Bertie Boru - Hansupfordetroit - Seven Woods
3. Race: Moorlands Mist - Pure Science - Brackloon High
4. Race: Kentucky Hyden - Violet Dancer - Le Rocher
5. Race: Well Refreshed - Goonyella - Highland Lodge
6. Race: Get It On - Un Bon P`tit Gars - Renard
7. Race: Bar A Mine - Capilla - Ashford Wood