Sunday, December 15, 2013

only 2 runners at Navan

the best race at today´s 3 N.H. meetings in the U.K. and Ireland is clearly the Grade One novice hurdle at 14.05 CET at Navan, but this has cut up badly and now only two go to post. The Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh team continues in top form and should take this with Briar Hill, who won the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, which is really strong form. He duly won his only start over hurdles. but had little to beat and faces a better opponent now. The other runner Axorian (Eion Griffin/ Davy Russell) is no slouch, but not expected to trouble Briar Hill. The big betting race here is the Grade B handicap hurdle at 14.40, in which Mullins and Walsh field another fancied candidate in Call me Bubbles; however that one, also useful on the flat, is weighted up to the hilt, and we prefer two horses that have been chasing but are much better handicapped over hurdles: Colbert Street (Ted Walsh/ Tony McCoy) and German-bred Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Bryan Cooper). Colbert Street is no doubt the reason for McCoy´s presence here and is clearly being aimed at the Grand National again, and while he can never be left out, we prefer Noble Prince, who is running over his ideal distance.
A German-bred we like at Southwell is Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Sammy Drake) in the stayers handicap hurdle at 13.55. He has never lived up to his excellent pedigree, but is very well handicapped and usually goes well at this track. Also at Southwell,trhe top bumper horse Red Sherlock (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) makes his hurdling debut at 14.30; if he jumps round all right, he has to win here, with Badger Wood (Mark Smyly/ David England), who has already run well over hurdles, the danger.
The going at Carlisle is heavy and with some small fields, this is not a punter-friendly card. However some decent staying hurdlers line up at 14.20 Trustan Times (Tim Easterby/ James Revely) and Lie Forrit (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) have easily the best form, but are highly weighted as a result, and the question is whether they can concede so much weight to the lightly-raced but promising Kaki de la Press (Tom Symonds/ Felix de Giles). On the whole, we prefer experience., and at the likely odds Trustan Times (each way) is our recommendation.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sizing Tennessee - Kick On Boss - Rock The World
2. Race: College Boy - Wells China - Hop In
3. Race: Azorian - Very Wood - Azorian
4. Race: Call Me Bubbles - Noble Prince - Ally Cascade
5. Race: Folsom Blue - Wingtips - Sizing Gold
6. Race: Come To The Party - Golden Ticket - Troll D`oudairies
7. Race: Fine Rightly - Desertmore Stream - Perfect Promise