Saturday, December 14, 2013

International fields at Cheltenham

the Cheltenham International Meeting lives up to ist name today, when there are not only the usual Irish challengers, but also runners from France and Germany. The German hope is Burgoyne (Christian von der Recke/ Robert Thornton) who goes for the 3yo hurdle at 13.10 CET. Von der Recke, who has a good record at this track, bought this one cheaply out of Hughie Morrison´s stable, and he has won two minor races since, but faces a huge task here..We would love to see him run well, but our main fancy is debutant Commissioned (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan), who was much better on the flat for Mark Johnston and comes from a stable that knows how to get one ready. The Weilerswist wizard will be at Cheltenham, but he also runs Cafe au Lait (Tom O´Brien) in a better grade 3yo hurdle at 15.05 at Doncaster, where we again expect a debutant trained by Sheihk Mohammed´s bloodstock adviser to come out on top - this time Broughton, who is German-bred but also showed good form for Mark Johnson; the very promising Royal Irish Hussar (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) however could be the one to beat.

Back at Cheltenham, the main event is the Grade Two International Hurdle at 16.00, and with all due respect to the two French runners here, this must surely be a match between The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) and last year´s winner Zarkandar (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob). There is nothing between them on ratings, and we just give a slight edge to Zarkandar - who narrowly defeated The New One at Aintree in April- even though the betting may suggest otherwise, and The New One, so impressive here at the Festival and last time out at Kempton, is actually ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle here next March.
There are more top hurdlers on view over a longer distance at 16.35, and this time there could be a French winner as Gemix (N de Balanda/ David Cottin) is the top-rated runner. However this is a tricky race and he must give weight to 3 promising opponents. Willie Mullins is having a great run and the fact that he sends Ruby Walsh here for just one ride suggests that his mare Glens Melody in receipt of 7 lbs can go close.

The big betting race is the2 miles 5 furlongs handicap chase at 15.25, which looks wide open. Johns Spirit (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon) won the big handicaps here at both the October and November Meetings, but is not so well handicapped now. Our 3 against the field are Easter Meteor (Emma Lavelle/ Aidan Coleman), Colour Squadron (Philip Hobbs/ Tony McCoy) and bottom-weight Sew on Target (Colin Tizzard/ Brendan Powell). The 2 mile handicap chase at 14.15 is equally difficult and the field includes the 2011 winner Astracad (Nigel and Sam T-D) and 2012 winner Shooters Wood (Nicholls/ Jacob) and both can play a leading role again; but Nicky Henderson has 4 runners here, with the stable jockey Barry Geraghty partnering Tanks for That; this one ois not very consistent and has in fact been pulled up on both his last two starts here, but he seems well handicapped and is our choice.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kentucky Hyden - Vicenzo Mio - Commissioned
2. Race: Shutthefrontdoor - Le Bec - Sam Winner
3. Race: Eastlake - Drumshambo - Saved By John
4. Race: Kings Palace - Saint Roque - Potters Cross
5. Race: Colour Squadron - Johns Spirit - Grandioso
6. Race: Zarkandar - Court Minstrel - Seabreeze d`Ho
7. Race: Salubrious - More Of That - Glens Melody