Friday, November 22, 2013

small fields, but some good racing

there are small fields at this afternoon´s 3 U.K.meetings - with normal each-way betting only possible in a handful of races - but there are some very competive races, espeoially at Ascot and Haydock, which both stage above average racing for a Friday.
Nicky Henderson has not teally hit top form so far this season, but launches a strong attack on Ascot and we expect gim to take the first two races with Beat That at 14.00 CET and Top of the Range half an hour later, both with Barry Geraghty in the saddle. He will also fancy his chances with Tradewinds in the introductory hurdle at 15.05, but we cannot forsake the Schlenderhan-bred Irving (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) after the latter´s spectactular debut victory a fortnight ago at Taunton. The handicaps are of course very tricky, but we like Niceonefrankie (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell) at 15.40, as we feel that he might be better suited by this trip of 2 miles 3 furlongs than his opponents. Another ex-Schlenderhan runner is Milord (Kim Bailey/ Sam Thomas) in the handicap hurdle at 16.50, but this looks wide open and we prefer Population (John Ferguson/ Jack Quinlan).
Ferguson sends his main jockey Denis O´Regan to Haydock, where he partners the smart Purple Bay in the listed novice hurdle at 14.55. Despite having only 5 runners, this id a very tough race and they are all last-time-out winners. We just about prefer Zamdy Man (Venetia/ Aidan Coleman), who scored in very good style at Ascot last time and is closely related to Lando. The novice chase at 15.30 is another very compettive little race and here we go for Up And Go (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who is making his chasing debut. The most interesting race for betting purposes could be the opening 3 mile handicap hurdle at 13.50, with 13 runners and almost as many likely winners; perhaps it might pay to concentrate on the two bottom-weights, Cyrien Star (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall) and Shouldavboughtgold (William Kinsey/ Charlie Huxley).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Beat That - Sybarite - Knock House
2. Race: Titchwood - My Dads Horse - Lord Of House
3. Race: Tradewinds - A Hare Breath - Hung Parliament
4. Race: Gallox Bridge - Greywell Boy - Al Alfa
5. Race: Night Alliance - Annacotty - Ballypatrick
6. Race: Dunraven Storm - Brinestine - Population