Betfair Chase at Haydock

Haydock stages its best N.H. meeting of the season today and the field for the Grade One Betfair Chase at 16.00 CET is the best ever and certainly worthy of the Cheltenham Gold Cup - in fact two winners of that race are in the line-up, Bobs Worth (Barry Geraghty) and Long Run (Sam Waley-Cohen), both trained by Nicky Henderson. Long Run is a tricky character who often spoils his chances by sloppy jumping; we certainly don´t blame his jockey, the owner´s son, as he has after all won the Gold Cup and King George with him. The stable think that his problems have been ironed out, in which case he should definitely be involved, but we still prefer Bobs Worth, who has won his last 3 races, all with long intervals in between, so the fact that he has not run since March is no problem; that Gold Cup was the best form in this field, and we feel that everything is in his favour today. He goes best left-handed, the ground is oerfect and the changes to the course - it is now slightly tougher than last year and the race is over a furlong longer- is also to his advantage.

Paul Nicholls has won 5 of the 8 runnings of this race - 4 times with Kauto Star and last year with Silviniaco Conti, who tries again today with a rather surprising jockey choice Noel Fehily aboard. Silviniaco Conti fell 3 out at Cheltenham when still in contention, though we don´t think he would have troubled Bobs Worth. He is clearly very smart, but we actually prefer his 12yo stable companion Tidal Bay (Sam Twiston-Davies), an admirable character with a great turn of finishing speed. He stays really well and will be putting in his best work at the finish. He won over hurdles last time - the race he usually starts off the season with - but we have not forgotten his great effort in last year´s Hennessy when he was runner-up to Bobs Worth,conceding 6 lbs. That puts him bang in the picture today.

We would love to see German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Denis O´Regan) run well; her was third here last year and fourth in the Gold Cup, so is well held by the principals, but could run into the Money at a big price..He has a new jockey today , as his regular pilot Tom Scudamore rides the very promising Dynaste for David Pipe; he is the question mark of the race, as it is not quite clear how good he actually is, but the trainer rates him very highly and runs him here rather than in easier races at Cheltenham last week.

The other two runners are also not to be sneezed at - Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard) and Irish hope Roi du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire). Timeform actually rate Cue Card the equal of Bobs Worth, but we disagree, and in any case we don´t think he will stay the distance in this company. Roi du Mee certainly stays well enough, but this strong front-runner will probably be found out by the horses with slightly more class today, although we can easily imagine his leading until two out. The more we think about this race, the more we are convinced that last year´s Hennessy Gold Cup is the key and we would not be at all surprised to see the same result, with Bobs Worth winning and Tidal Way second.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hawkhill - Quick Decisson - Tidal Way
2. Race: Far West - Rolling Star - Doyly Carte
3. Race: Ace High - Gorgehous Lliege - Mister Philson
4. Race: Home Run - More Of That - Blue Fashion
5. Race: Gevrey Chambertin - Gullinbursti - Master Of The Sea
6. Race: Bobs Worth - Silviniaco Conti - Dynaste
7. Race: Gas Line Boy - The Rainbow Hunter - Quincy Des Pictons