Wednesday, November 13, 2013

5 meetings today

5 meetings today with racing over jumps at Bangor and Exeter and flat racing on the all-weather this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton and in Ireland at Dundalk.
The best horse running today is Smad Place (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the novice chase over 3 miles at 15.10 CET at Exeter. A top staying hurdler, he was odds-on for his chasing debut 10 days ago at Huntingdon, but fell at the last when well clear. Up to that point his jumping had been fine; he will be odds-on again today and, bar another fall, looks a near certainty. Seymour Eric (Martin Keighley/ Ian Popham) makes his chasing debut here; he won 5 hurdles races last season, but nowhere near the form shown by Smad place, but still looks next best. King and Choc can follow up in the beginners chase half an hour later with Valdez, another useful hurdler making his debut over fences. Dan Skelton has made a great start to his training career and can stay on the winning trail with Twice Returned here at 14.40 with his son Harry in the saddle; Royal Native (Antony Honeyball/ Rachael Green), a CD winner last week, is the obvious danger.
At Bangor, the 3 mile handicap chase at 14.50 is the main event and looks very tricky with all 9 runners holding a chance; our tentative selection is Loch Ba (Mick Channon/ Dominic Elsworth). Donald McCain usually does well here at his local zrack and has several runners. The one we like best is Bourne (Jason Maguire) in the 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle at 15.50; this distance is far more suitable that the marathon trip he tried last time. We also like Winds and Waves (Henry Daly/ Jake Greenall), who can defy top weight in the novices handicap chase at 14.20.
The Lingfield card this afternoon is very poor; the fillies 7 furlongs handicap at 15.00 is the most interesting race and we fancy Broughtons Charm (Willie Musson/ Robert Winston) e.w.in an open event.
There is slightly more quality on view at Kempton. Godolphin usually do well here and we like I´m Back (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) in the conditions race at 20.30. The 5 furlongs handicap at 17.50 jhas two former group winners in the field- Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Graham lLee) and Tax Free (David Nicholls/ Robert Havlin). At these weights we must give Tax Free another chance, although he has been very expensive to follow this year. It is amazingly the 11-year-old´s first ever start on the all-weather and perhaps that will bring about a revival in his form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Minella Friend - Ned Stark - Mosspark
2. Race: Royale Knight - Bob Tucker - Armenian Boy
3. Race: Seymour Eric - Ardkilly Witness - Counting House
4. Race: Valdez - The Italian Yob - Ohio Gold
5. Race: Horizontal Speed - Royale`S Charter - Waterunder
6. Race: Midnight Lira - Moorlands Jack - Moleskin
7. Race: Joanne One - Ruby Glow - Blue Buttons