Monday, November 11, 2013

3 poor meetings today

very low level racing at all 3 meetings today. On top of that, small fields and bad ground at Southwell - 41 runners in 7 races - make this card very unattractive for punters. There won´t be many buyers for Connectivity (Dr. Richard Newland/ Tony McCoy) after the claiming hurdle at 16.10 CET, but the 9yo has easily the best form in the race and with the champ in the saddle should win this easily. McCoy also has two promising rides for Steve Gollins, Make me A Fortune at 15.05 and Balinderry at 16.40 and they both have chances. However Inandover (Jim Mackie/ Donal Devereux) looks the likelier winner of the earlier race after winning here 18 days ago and his form might receive a boost if Cloudy Dawn (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England), third that day, runs well in the opener at 13.30.
The best race of the day is the graduation chase at 15.25 at Carlisle, featuring last season´s Grand National runner-up Cappa Blue (Paul Moloney), who was second in this last year. He is top-rated now and has repeatedly been placed in top staying chases, but is unlikely to be fully wound up here. Buddy Bolero (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) fell early when fancied for a top handicap at Ascot 9 days ago and must be considered, but our preference is for Imperial Vic (Michael Smith/ Danny Cook), very consistent at a slightly lower level and now getting 11 lbs from the two principals. Etxalar (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) goes well here and might be able to defy top weight for his in-form stable at 13.45, while Top Billing (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) showed improved form last time and the Monsun gelding might go on to record his first ever victory in the novices handicap hurdle at 14.15.
It is possible that there some decent 2yo´s running in the divisions of the mile maiden that open the card at Kempton, but with practically no form go on, these races should be watched for future reference only. For betting purposes, the best race here is the mile handicap at 16.20. Diplomatic (Michael Squance/ Adam Kirby) loves Kempton, where her has already won 7 times and has scored twice over CD in the last fortnight. He is still reasonably handicapped, is well drawn and can complete a quick hat-trick today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Snuker - Etxalar - Shoal Bay Dreamer
2. Race: Top Billing - Dickie Henderhoop - Goodacres Garden
3. Race: Little Glenshee - Castlelawn - Rockawango
4. Race: Cappa Bleu - Buddy Bolero - Imperial Vic
5. Race: Milo Man - Maybe I Wont - Greensalt
6. Race: Zaru - Tutchec - Ros Castle
7. Race: Marrakech Trader - Stonebrook - Rocky Stone