Sunday, October 27, 2013

Jumping today

The flat season is almost over and today we have only 4 N.H. fixtures, 2 in the U.K. and 2 in Ireland. The Grade Three novice chase at 16.35 CET at Galway is the best event, but looks slightly sub-standard. Shrapnel (Gordfon Elliott/ Davy Russell) will probably start a warm favourite here; a useful hurdler. he won his first chase, but was not greatly impressive. It might be worth taking a chance on Shadow Eile (Di Love/ Andrew McNamara), the only mare in the field, who is much better than her form figures indicate.

At Wexford, the listed chase over 2 3/4 miles at 16.20 is the main feature. Doublke Seven (Martin Brassil/ Mark Walsh) is in great form and has won his last 4 races. He is best in according to offficial ratings but we shall oppose him with Laganbank (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), Ruby´s only ride of the day, who looks capable of much better things. Sweeney Tunes (Paul Nolan/ Andrew Lynch) is also decent but probably needs further - he was 4th in the Irish Grand National. Our best bet here is Carriganog (Aidan O´Brien/ Robbie Power) in the novice hurdle at 15.50. The trainer is of course best known for his high class flat performers, but started out in N.H. racing; Carriganog was twice uinplaced in bumpers, ridden by the trainer´s teenage daughter, but won his first hurdle race in style, despite showing inexperience, and is probably much better than this grade.

In the U.K. there is racing at Aintree and Wincanton. At the former track we like German-bred Lovcen (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 15.05; he was well behind Ely Brown (Charlie Longsdon/ Chatlie Deutsch) in this race last year but meets him now on miucvh better terms. We also like Stagecoach Pearl (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) at 15.40, who was out of sorts last year but showed signs of returning to form last time, and Ruacana (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) at 16.15. At Wincanton, it should pay to follow Paul Nicholls´ runners at his local track; the stable is coming into form and he has 5 runners, all of whom have chances.

Galway - betting forecast:
1. Race: Blow The Doors Off - Gold Not Silver - Apisata
2. Race: Royal Vic - Mr Cosmopolitan - Aerlite Supreme
3. Race: Fosters Cross - Rocky Wednesday - Blacklough
4. Race: Band Of Blood - Top Cat Henry - Flanagans Field
5. Race: Shrapnel - Six Stone Ned - Clar Na Mionn
6. Race: Popaflora - Pat Garrett - Georgie
7. Race: Couleur France - Quinville Castle - Dream Beat