Thursday, October 31, 2013

German fillies at Lingfield

the owners of Britain´s all-weather tracks are planning a massive upgrade of their winter programme, and the first fruits can be seen at Lingfield this afternoon, with an unusually strong card for a Thursday, including two listed races for fillies with a German runner in each. Moi Lolita (Markus Klug/ Andreas Helfenbein) runs over a mile at 15.50 CET, while Lalandia (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) follows half an hour later over five furlongs further. Although the fields are quite large, there is not much quality opposition and we think that both German fillies have a good each-way chance, especially Lalandia, who should be well suited by this longer distance after finishing second at Munich over 11 furlongs last time. Banoffee (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Fortune) is best on ratings here, but ran badly last time, although her 7th place in the Oaks obviously makes her the form choice. In our view Phaenonema (Lady cecil/ Paul Hanagan) and especially German-bred Phiz (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin), runner-up in the Park Hill, are the main dangers. French challenger Collusiva (Giuseppe Botti/ Martin Harley) does not look good enough in the mile race, while Enrol (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) has never raced beyond 7 furlongs and Galician (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) was 4th in a similar event at Colpgne, but runs much too often for our liking. Valais Girl (Marcus regoning/ Harry Bentley) finished in front of Enrol last time and could be the main threat. Also at Lingfield, the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.20 looks a hot race, but bottom-weight Horsted Keynes (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) seems very fairly treated and can win his third race in 4 career starts.

The rest of the afternoon´s racing is over jumps. Tony McCoy needs only 9 more winners to reach the magic total of 4,000; he has 3 rides at Stratford and could well win on all 3. Nicky Henderson´s Snake Eyes is obviously a major prospect and should take the novice hurdle at 15.40, while Jonjo O´Neill´s Very Stylish is well handicapped at 16.10 and shoud go better on this much softer going. Rebecca Curtis` Bob Keown is a bit of an unknown quantity in the maiden hurdle at 17.10, but McCoy has an excellent strike rate for this trainer.

ex- German Lysino (Chris Grant/ Brian Harding) must have a decent each-way chance in the handicap hurdle at 14.30 at Sedgefield; he is probably not as useful as his half-brothers Lyssio and Lyvius, but does not have to be in this company. We also like Bourne (Donald McCain(/ Jason Maguire) in his first attempt at a long distance at 15.00 here, as well as CD specialist Sendiym (Dianne Sayer/ Brian Hughes) at 16.30.
In Ireland there are some big fields at Clonmel, where we shall take a chance on German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Mark Walsh) who has top weight in the handicap hurdle 15.55. He used to be very smart but has not won now for 4 years; however he is now very well handicapped and has not totally lost form. He has been running in far better races than this and we hope that he still retains enough ability to score here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Song Of Norway - Nice Life - Shasta Daisy
2. Race: Three Cliffs - My Target - Zerfaal
3. Race: Maraayill - Kafeel - Ganges
4. Race: Horsted Keynes - Favourite Treat - Noble Citizen
5. Race: Enrol - Indignant - Moi Lolita
6. Race: Banoffee - Lalandia - Phaenomena

7. Race: Red Warrior - Fairyinthewind - Modernism
8. Race: Bassett Road - Wordismybond - One Way Or Another