Saturday, August 03, 2013

Glorious Goodwood: final day

Goodwood´s big meeting ends today with an extremely strong card, but a minefield for punters with very large fields and some very competitive races. The main event is the Group One Nassau Stakes at 16.15 CET, where Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is the clear favourite. after winning the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes; last time out she was controversially beaten by Elusive Kate, who went on to an easy Deauville Group One success. However she has never run beyond a mile and on pedigree there must be doubts whether she will stay this distance. Just The Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) was behind her both at Ascot and Newmarket - winning the Irish 1000 in between- but she is much more stoutly bred and could well take her revenge. Hot Snap (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) has not run since disappointing in the 1000, but she looked smart when winning the Nell Gwyn, and as a half-sister to Midday (who won this race twice) should have no problem with the distance. Of the older runners, Sajjhaa (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) would definitely have a chance if she could reproduce her brilliant Meydan form, but for now we prefer Moment in Time (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley), who finished strongly to beat Nymphea and Ambivalent (Roger Varian/ Johnny Murtagh) - both Group One winners since- at Haydock. This is a really hot race and we shall take the favourite on, with Hot Snap, Just the Judge and Moment in Time our three against the field.
The Nassau is the only group race on the card, but the two top 6 furlong handicaps -. the Stewards Cup at 16.50 (28 runners) and the consolation race, the Stewards Sprint at 15.05 (24 runners) are the big betting races and look really difficult. These races are a lottery with luck always playing a major role, but we shall try to make things easier by concentrating on horses drawn low, who would seem to have an advantage. Our three against the field therefore are therefore El Viento (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner), Out Do (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Noverre to Go (Ron Harris/ Cathy Gannon) at 15.05, and York Glory (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer), last year´s winner Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) and Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Cathy Gannon)- drawn in the middle, but that coukd be o.k.- at 16.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Picture Dealer - Above Standard - Enrol
2. Race: Bold Sniper - Havana Cooler - Pether`s Moon
3. Race: Sky Lantern - Integral - Just The Judge
4. Race: Tropics - York Glory - Shropshire
5. Race: War Spirit - After The Goldrush - Snow Trouble
6. Race: Mezel - Art Official - Our Queenie
7. Race: Holley Shiftwell - Lexington Place - Extrasolar