Glorious Goodwood: day four

there has been a bit of rain this morning at Goodwood, but the going is still apparenttly good, good to firm. The going could be quite significant today, with several horses hoping for more rain and several for faster ground.
Although there are 4 Group races on today´s card, the most valuable race and also the big betting race is the Betfred Mile at 16.05 CET. Even with 3 non-runners (so far) this is still a very difficult race and the draw is also a major factor here, as a low number is clearly a big advantage. Rain would definitely help the chances of Fire Ship (William Knight/ Neil Callan) and Cape Peron (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) - both well drawn, while we also like the chances of Windhoek (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton) - one of 3 runners from his in-form stable- and Irish runner Brendan Brackan (Gery Lyons/ Collin Keane), a very easy winner at Galway on Tuesday who only carries a 3 lbs penalty here, but goes up 13 lbs in future handicaps.
The card opens with the Glorious Stakes for older horses over 1 1/2 miles at 14.55. The best runners here are Aiken (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Masterstroke (Charlie Appleby/ Micjael Barzalona), neither of whom has run since last October. We prefer the Godolphin horse who was third in the Arc when still trained by André Fabre, but as a son of Monsun can be expected to show further improvement. Forgotten Voice (Nicky Henderson/ Johnny Murtagh), a smart hurdler, is a big danger judged on his Royal Ascot form.
The Group Three for 3yo´s over a mile at 1530 looks between Montiridge (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), 2nd and 3rd in the Jersey Stakes but both also good enough at this distance. Tawhid was earlier 3rd in the German 2000 Guineas, but Montiridge gets the vote.
The 5 furlongs King George Stakes at 16.40 is as open as any handicap. Oldtimer Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ de Siusa) and Masamah (Marco Botti/ Callan) won this in 2010 and 2011, while Spirit Quartz (Robert Cowell/ Jamie Spencer) was runner-up to the smart Australian Ortensia in this last year. They all come into the reckoning again, together with Kingsgate Native (Cowell/ Shane Kelly) and Tickled Pink (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally).
The 7 furlongs race for fillies and mares at 17.50 is another tricky one, with 12 of the 14 runners being 3yo´s. Shuruq (bin Suroor/ de Sousa) is a classic winner, having won the UAE Oaks, but we don´t really believe in her on her British debut this year and prefer Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ Nortomn), 4th in the 1,000 Guineas, and Pavlovsk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), a bit disappointing at Royal Ascot, but who should be good enough for this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Aiken - Masterstroke - Lost In The Moment
2. Race: Montiridge - Baltic Knight - Glory Awaits
3. Race: Wentworth - Cape Peron - Dance And Dance
4. Race: Tickled Pink - Swiss Spirit - Smoothtalkinrascal
5. Race: Grecian - Tanseeb - Major Crispies
6. Race: Pavlosk - Winning Express - Shuruq
7. Race: Retirement Plan - Northern Meeting - Goodwood Mirage