Wednesday, July 24, 2013

listed race this evening

six meetings today with more small fields and most of the racing at a low level, but there is a decent card this evening in Ireland at Naas, with a listed race over 6 furlongs for filles and mares at 20.25 CET the main feature. On all known form this should concern only the 3yo´s Snow Queen (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and Boston Rocker (Eddie Lynam/ Declan McDonogh). The latter has only won once, her maiden more than a year ago, but has been placed 7 times in 9 starts since, mainly in good company, but we prefer the O´Brien filly, who has made no show in her last 3 races, but was 5th in the 1,000 Guineas, and a repetition of that form should be good enough. The O´Brien´s can also take the mile conditions race half an hour later with Fortify, who never runs a bad race, while Swift Action (John Oxx/ McDonogh) should be another winning favourite in the 6 furlongs maiden at 19.50.
The 5 British cards are much less exciting, even Sandown´s evening meeting looks below par, although we expect that Pearl Spectre (Andrew Balding/ Jamie Spencer) can take the 2yo maiden here at 19.55.
The 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 is the best race this afternoon at Catterick. CD specialist Lost in Paris (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) won this last year and has an obvious chance of scoring again, but we just prefer the more lightly-raced Angelito (Ed McMahon/ Franny Norton), who looked a bit unlucky last time at Windsor.
The most interesting races on the all-weather at Lingfield are the two divisions of the 1 1/2 mile maiden at 16.10 and 16.40. They are not good betting races with plenty of unexposed and debutant runners from top stables, but should certainly be watched for future reference. If forced to have a bet, we would go each-way for the 4yo Fragonard (Lady cecil/ Tom Queally) in the second division. This well-bred colt missed all of 2012 but still looks a good prospect.
Over jumps at Worcester, we see one of our favourites horses in action in the novice hurdle at 17.20. This is the ex-Schiergen-trained Lyssio (Jim Best/ Conor Shoemark), who won a similar race at Newton Abbot 9 days ago by 21 lengths. However this is a tougher race, with Portofino Wasp (Jonjo O´Neill/ Maurice Lineham) and Rosie Probert (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) both looking dangerous and also getting weight. However he fares here, we expect McCoy - who had winners at two tracks yesterday- to have another good day and win on Royal Trooper at 16.50 and Another Hero an hour later.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sign From Heaven - Hurryupharriet - Amygdala
2. Race: Ucanchoose - Catwilldo - South Ring
3. Race: Live Dangerously - Swift Action - Cottrell
4. Race: Snow Queen - Boston Rocker - Hanky Panky
5. Race: Fortify - Hot Bed - Starbright
6. Race: High Hill Beauty - Roja Dove - Orion`s Might
7. Race: Mordanmijobsworth - One True Love - He`S Got Rhythm