Thursday, July 25, 2013

group races in Ireland this evening

there are 8 meetings in Britain and Ireland today, but pride of place goes clearly to the evening card at Leopardstown, which features two Group Three races. Aidan O´Brien, needless to say, has good prospects in both and we certainly expect Mars, ridden by his son Joseph, to win the Meld Stakes over 9 furlongs at 20.20 CET. Always rumoured to be one of his best, Mars won his only start last year, and this year has run respectably- although without getting close to winning - in the 2000 Guineas, Derby, St. James´s Palace Stakes and Eclipse, 4 of the toughest races of the season. After those runs, this evening´s race will seem like a walk in the park. Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), a close 4th in the Irish Oaks last Saturday, looks the main threat, although Dermot Weld´s 5yo mare Along Came Casey (Pat Smullen), easily the best of the older runners, should also go well. O´Brien has 2 of the 7 runners in the Tyros Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 19.15, with Joseph on Sir John Hawkins, who ran well in the Coventry and July Stakes and is dropping in grade slightly here. However we just prefer Exogenesis (Ger Lyons/ Gary Carroll), an impressive winner over this CD 3 weeks ago.
Easily the best race in the U.K. is the listed event for 2yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 16.05 at Sandown, which looks very tricky, with most of the runners moving upo in grade after easily winning their maiden. Godolphin´s two runners look dangerous, especially Majeyda (Micjael Barzalona), while Qawaasem (Charlie Hills/ Paul Hanagan) and Ligeia (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) mjust also be considered. If she is at a huge price we might have a small place bet on Clive Brittain´s Ifrika (Ryan Moore) from a stable that loves tilting at windmills -and sometimes with success.
The rest of the British racing today is dominated by very small fields, which we would rather leave alone. At least there are some "normal" fields this evening at Doncaster, where the fillies handicap at 20.50 looks wide open. Elle Woods (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) is going for a quick hat-trick, but she does not look so well handicapped now,while Shesastar (David Barron/ Silvestre de Sousa) won this last year from a higher rating and Hidden Belief (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) is moving into handicaps after a very easy maiden win; we shall take an each-way chance on top-weight Dutch Rose (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has been running without much success in better company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tahaany - Upper Silesian - Supernatural
2. Race: Sir John Hawkins - Exogenesis - Expedition
3. Race: Zelie Martin - Glen Ginnie - Conversational
4. Race: Along Came Casey - La Collina - Sweet Lightning
5. Race: Neophilia - Castle Guest - Pim Street
6. Race: Heirloom - Zafarqand - Leah Claire
7. Race: Feile Na Mban - Palace Of Winds - Army Ranger