July Cup at Newmarket

A huge amount of top class racing today - far too much in our opinion- but no doubt at all about the top event - the Group One July Cup over six furlongs at 16.50 CET at Newmarket. This is a fascinating race with a really strong field, including 3 fancied runners from Ireland, one each from South Africa and Australia and one from the Middle East. Many of them ran in the two big sprints at Royal Ascot last month and the King´s Stand Stakes and the Diamond Jubilee give us some valuable clues to today´s race. The former event, over 5 furlongs, was won by Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh), who came with his customary late surge to catch Shea Shea (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon) close home, with the Australian hope Shamexpress (Danny O´Brien/ Mickael Barzalona) disappointing in ninth. Lethal Force (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) made almost all the running to win the Diamond Jubilee, over today´s distance, from Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Kieren Fallon), who finished fast after his usual slow start, with Krypton Factor (Fawzi Nass/ Luke Morris) third, Slade Power (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan) seventh - he has won since in Ireland - and Havelock and Zanetto further back.

One of the questions to be asked is whether Shea Shea and Sole Power, undoubtedly two of the best 5 furlong horses in the world- will last out this sixth furlong, especially as Newmarket is quite a tough course. The firm going will clearly be a help, but we are not quite convinced and would rather go for the distance specialists. Then there is Society Rock, who started favourite for this race last year, but could only finish third on desperate ground. He beat Lethal Force earlier in the season by a head at York, biut Clive Cox´s grey seems to have improved since. However he very much got the run of the race at Ascot and it is not easy to lead all the way here. As long as he does not blow the start again, we suspect that Society Rock will beat his rival this time.

The other big question mark concerns Gale Force Ten (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), who won the Jersey at Royal Ascot; that form has been boosted since, but this is a much better race. Before that he was runner-up in the Irish 2,000 and a close 4th in the French equivalent. He is down in trip and wearing blinkers for the first time now; Aidan O´Brien has won the race with similar types twice before and this one is obviously a huge danger, even though he has a few pounds to find on ratings. There are several possible scenarios here and at least half a dozen possible winners. We expect to see another finish dominated by Lethal Force and Society Rock - and shall take a chance on the latter in the hope that he gets off to a level start- but obviously Gale Force Ten can beat them all and establish himself as a new force on the international sprinting scene.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Makafeh - Prince`s Trust - Aussie Reigns
2. Race: Good Old Boy Lukey - Somewhat - Outstrip
3. Race: Belgian Bill - Field Of Dream - Burn The Boats
4. Race: Shea Shea - Society Rock - Lethal Force
5. Race: Emirates Flyer - Sacha Park - Green Door
6. Race: Dutch Courage - Malachim Mist - Al Baz
7. Race: Havana Cooler - Pether`s Moon - Cousin Khee