Monday, July 15, 2013

5 poor meetings today

There is rarely decent racing on a Monday and today is no exception. The "best" race of the day is the mile handicap at Ayr at 18.00 CET, which looks very tricky, with all 8 runners holding a chance. Sennockian Star (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is the likely favourite; he is a typical tough Johnston runner who has already won 3 races in 2013 and been in the frame all other starts.

The two top-weights are obvious dangers - Able Master (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), a real summer horse who won over this CD a week ago, and Suits me (David Barron/ Philipp Makin). However all these 3 look well exposed and not especially well handicapped; we therefore go for last year´s winner, the consistent Dubai Dynamo (Riuth Carr/ James Sullivan)- and the same trainer and jockey are responsible for our longshot of the day, old man Beckermet in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.00. His days of running in group races are long gone, but he is surely capable of running well in a class 5 handicap off a lenient rating.

The best thing of the day is Lyssio (Jim Best/ Tony McCoy) in the opening race at 15.15 at Newton Abbot, but he will be at a very short price. This ex-German listed horse has already shown talent over hurdles, and both his elder brothers have good form in this sphere, while his younger brother won the German Derby a week ago! With Peter Bowen in great form, he also like his Tiermore (Jamie Moore) in the handicap chase here at 16.15. He is up in class here, but must have good prospects off bottom weight.

There is also quite a decent chase on Killarney´s mixed card this evening in Ireland. Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Barry Geraghty) is clearly the class act in his 2 miles 1 furlong event at 20.40, but he has a huge weight and we just wonder if he can give 30 lbs to German-bred Prince of Fire (Charlie Swan/ David Casey).

Ayr - betting forecast:
1. Race: Broadcaster - Ticking Katie - Malraaj
2. Race: Circuitous - Lupin Pooter - Diamondhead
3. Race: Strong Man - Dhhamaan - Foolbythepool
4. Race: Menelik - Twenty One Choice - Our Boy Jack
5. Race: Paramour - True Pleasure - Jebel Tara
6. Race: Sennockian Star - Ginger Jack - Able Master
7. Race: Viva Colonia - Grand Diamond - Kingarrick