Tuesday, July 16, 2013

5 more poor meetings today

Today´s cards are even worse than yesterday´s, and with small fields and firm ground everywhere, it is hard to find good betting opportunities. With the Mark Johnston stable now in top form, we think that he could win both the class 4 handicaps at Beverley, with Tartan Jura over 2 miles at 16.00 CET and Dame Nellie Melba over the extended mile half an hour later; Joe Fanning rides them both.

The former made all to win a similar race at Catterick last time and can score again with only 4 lbs more, but the latter is more interesting: Kirsten Rausing´s filly is well-bred - she is a half-sister to Dallmayr winner Lady Jane Digby- but in her 3 outings so far has failed to reach the first 4; however she showed definite promise when 5th of 12 on her 2013 debut 11 days ago and could well be much better than her current rating.

Bath is one of the few British tracks without a watering system, and racing there on a rock-hard surface is best left alone today. The going will also be on the firm side at Yarmouth this evening and we think that Piazza San Sietro (Zoe Davidson/ Simon Pearce) must have a decent each-.way chance in the 6 furlongs at 20.20. He loves the ground and usually runs well here; his latest Ascot flop on Friday is best ignored and he should run much better this time.

John Gosden´s filly Pomology (William Buick) is likely to start a very hot favourite in the 3yo handicap at Kempton at 21.30; she won in good style on her debut at Windsor a month ago and could be better than a handicapper, but at the likely odds she is no great value this evening. We would prefer to take a chance on Master Ming (Brian Meehan/ Kieren Fallon), who shares top weight with her and who seems reasonably weighted.

Killarney´s meeting continues in Ireland with another mixed card - 3 races on the flat, 3 over jumps and a bumper. The winning run of trainer Aidam O´Brien and his jockey son Joseph can continue with Il Palazzo at 18.40 and Rain God half an hour later. German-bred Novarov has a solid each-way chance in the novice chase at 20.40.

Beverley - betting forecast:
1. Race: Jamboree Girl - Lilo Lil - Bajan Rebel
2. Race: Ingenti - You`Relikemefrank - Chester Deelyte
3. Race: Nashville - Tartan Jura - Mojolika
4. Race: Dame Nellie Melba - Kalk Bay - Gold Show
5. Race: Rocket Ronnie - Bold And Free - Lexi`s Dancer
6. Race: Relight My Fire - Just The Tonic - Blue Maisey
7. Race: Meglio Ancora - Hernando Torres - Spanish Plume
8. Race: Sir Geoffrey - Niceonemyson - John Coffey