Saturday, April 27, 2013

Mixed card at Sandown

Mixed cards are unusual in British racing, but there is an excellent one today at Sandown today, traditionally the final day of the N.H. season. Half of the 8 races are on the flat and the others over jumps, including the big betting race of the day, the bet365 Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 16.50 CET. With 20 runners this looks really tough, and we shall start by discarding the runners who were in the Grand National 3 weeks ago, as we feel that this is too quick. The same goes for those from the Irish Grand National five days earlier and those that ran in other races at the Aintree meeting. We may be totally wrong here, but this knocks out half the field and makes it a bit easier. Well Refreshed (Gary and Jamie Moore) qualifies, but he has been put up 34 lbs for winning his last 3 races, and we don´t believe he can score again in this much better company and on faster ground. Top weight Michel le Bon (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) is not the most reliabl e, but won well at Newbury last time; however he is on his highest ever rating. The two we like best are Hold On Julio (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) and Mr Moss (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney). The former has admittedly run recently, but he represents a team in top form, is 2/2 at Sandown - over shorter distances- and is wearing first time blinkers, while the latter has had a light season, although he has been put up for finishing placed, which we feel is a bit unfair.

Another horse who has been raised in the weights is German-bred Seventh Sky (Chatrlie Mann/ Jason Maguire), who has been runner-up the last twice. He is a half-brother to Samum, Schiaparelli and other top performers and we think there could still be improvement to come. He is ridden by a strong jockey in the handicap hurdle at 15.05 and although this is another very tricky race, we hope that he can get his head in front this time. Home Run (David Pipe/ Kieran Edgar) is another runner with a good German pedigree here, but he ran disapppointingly last time after winning 5 races in quick succession earlier in the season.

The top N.H. race today is the Grade Two Celebration Chase over 2 miles at 15.40, which has a very strong field, headed by last year´s winner Sanctuaire ( Nicholls/ Jacob) and Finians Rainbow (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty). Both of them have spent much of the last two seasons chasing Sprinter Sacre, biut when he is not around, they are just about the best British two-milers around. Finians Rainbow won the Champion Chase last year, and the soft ground has been against him ever since; he now has his ideal going and we make him the selection.

The best flat race is the Group Three Gordon Richards Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.15, in which most of the runners are making their seasonal debut. Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ Jack Doyle) has not been seen since winning the Group Two Jockey Club Stakes a year ago; he is top-rated here, but we prefer the very lightly-raced Eagles Peak (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Thomas Chippendale (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), both of whom could make it at higher levels this season.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calculated Risk - Counsel - Leo Luna
2. Race: Minella Forfitness - Mubrook - Seventh Sky
3. Race: Sanctuaire - Oiseau De Nuit - Wishfull Thinking
4. Race: Al Kazeem - Ektihaam - Thomas Chippendale
5. Race: Well Refreshed - Same Difference - Hold On Julio

6. Race: Nichols Canyon - Royal Skies - Carry On Sydney
7. Race: Fire Ship - Maverik - Jake`s Destiny
8. Race: Spring Tonic - Grand Liaison - Charitable Act