Craven Stakes at Newmarket

The Craven Stakes is the main event at Newmarket today and the mile race for 3yo´s, a major trial for the 2,000 Guineas, is due to be off at 17.05 CET. There are only 4 runners, but it is still a good race and all 4 hold legitimate claims. Richard Hannon trains two of them, Toronado (Richard Hughes) and Havana Gold (Jamie Spencer) and the former, unbeaten in 3 starts last season, is likely to start a clear favourite. However it may not be so clear cut, as Dundonnell (Roger Charlton/ Jack Doyle) was only half a length behind him in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September and is now 3 lbs better off. Godolphin´ns Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) is also a big danger after winning the Horris Hill in excellent fahion last September. We shall have a better idea of Havana Gold´s chances after Ghurair (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan), who beat him a head in the big sales race here in October, runs in today´s sales race for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 15.55. The form of that race has not worked out very well, and we are not at all certain that Ghurair will stay this distance, so we are not convinced that he is a good thing today; Greatwood (Liuca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Havana Beat (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) look more certain stayers to us and could be the dangers to the favourite.

There are also two group races for molfder horses at Newmatrket today, the Abernant over 6 furlongs at 16.30 and the Earl of Sefton over 9 furlongs at 17.40. Balding has another good chance in the latter race with Bonfire (Jimmy Fortune), who has been gelded since disappointing a couple of times last season, and is expected to come back to his best form today. Sir Henry Cecil got off the mark yesterday and saddles the main danger, Stipulate (Toim Queally), although he is in theory held by top-weight Mull of Killough (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ George Baker), who finished last season by twice winning here. Old Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ Ted Durcan) has won 12 races - including twice in Germany- in his long and distinguished career, but we do not fancy him today. The field for the 6 furlongs race includes the 2012 winners of the two top handicaps over this distance, Captain Ramius (Kevin Ryan/ Ryan Moore) - Ayr Gold Cup- and Hawkeyerthenoo (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee)- Stewards Cup at Goodwo od- as well as Jimmy Styles (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby), runner-up in this last year, the much-improved Move in Time (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) and the consistent The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/ Neil Callan); Cecil and Queally have the very lightly-raced filly Tickled Pink running here and she might well beat the lot of them. It is very windy at Newmarket and the ground is firming up, but heavy showers are forecast, so the ground remains an unknown factor.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dutch Courage - Fire Blaze - Our Queenie
2. Race: Gerrards Cross - Mutajally - She`s Late
3. Race: Ghurair - Windhoek - Greatwood
4. Race: Hawkeyethenoo - Tiddliwinks - Captain Ramius
5. Race: Toronado - Dundonnell - Tawhid
6. Race: Bonfire - Mull Of Killough - Premio Loco
7. Race: Invincible Cara - Call Ahead - Meeting In Paris
8. Race: Hillstar - Mystery Bet - Van Percy