Thursday, April 04, 2013

Aintree:last 4 races

even if thje first 3 races are the best on today´s card, the other Aintree races are also very competitive with good betting opportunities. The final Grade One race is the novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 17.50 CET and we think there could be an upset here, as the the two favourites Captain Conan (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and Fago (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), both look vulnerable, while the well-backed Carlito Brigante (Gordon Eliott/ Jason Maguire) is not really up to Grade One class. We shall take an each way chance on Drumshambo (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) who has been very consistent on this winter´s heavy ground but may be even better on the faster going which we will encounter today.
There are 25 runners in the Fox Hunters Chase at 16.40 and it is difficult to gert a handle on the fortm, but we have narrowed it down to 3 runners: Bold Addition (Mrs. Browne/ Steven Clements) and Gwanako (Nicholls/ Jody Sole), who have both won their last 2 races in good style, and expecially last year´s winner Cloudy Lane (Donald McCain/ Richard Harding). Course form counts double here, especially over the National fences and it looks as if Cloudy Lane (who in younger days was well fancied for the Grand National itself on 3 occasions)has been prepared for thid race ever since he won it a year ago.
The two handicaps are of course extremely difficult with 18 runners in the 2 mile chase at 17.15 and 22 in the 3 mile hurdle at 18.25. Moist of the runners in the former event have already met several times, for example at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago or in this same race last year; Tanks for That (Henderson/ Geraghty) was pulled up in both, but he is now very well handicapped on his best form, and despite his abysmal completion record, is our choice, while the same trainer has two more good chances in the final race with the Queen´s Open Hearted (Nico de Boinville) and Ericht (BGeragthy); both are up in trip, but we think that they can stay the extra distance and could both be involved in the finish.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rolling Star - Irish Saint - Flaxen Flare
2. Race: First Lieutenant - The Giant Bolster - Cape Tribulation
3. Race: The New One - Zarkandar - Grandouet

4. Race: Gwanako - Bold Addition - Warne
5. Race: Kid Cassidy - Rebel Rebellion - Pires
6. Race: Fago - Captain Conan - Changing Times
7. Race: Easter Day - Open Hearted - Jetson