Aintree: first 3 races

Aintree starts off today with three Grade One races, all extremely competitive. The 4yo hurdle at 15.00 CET has two Nicky Henderson runners from the Triumph Hurdle, Vasco du Ronceray (Tony McCoy) and beaten favourite Rolling Star (Barry Geraghty), who finished fifth and sixth; we expect the latter to do better this time, but Irish Saint (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) looks dangerous on his Adonis form. Flaxen Flare (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) was most impressive when winning the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, and with his stable in red-hot form, definitely comes into the equation. Zamdy Man (Vnetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) was well behind him then, but we expect that he will run much better now, and as he is related to German champion Lando, he should be well suited by this faster going. He is the best longshot here.
The Betfred Bowl Chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.30, sees 4 competitors from the Gold Cup line up again. German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) did best in fourth (for the second time), with Cape Tribulation (Malcolm Jefferson/ Denis O´Regan) fifth, but the one to beat could be Silviniaco Conti (Nicholls/ Walsh), who fell 3 out when still going well, and would probably have finished second. The main opposition cvomes from the two Gigginstown runners Firest Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Bryan Cooper) and Quito de la Roque (Colm Murphy/ Paul Townend); the former was runner-up in the Ryanair Chase, but we prefer the latter, who runs here instead of in the Grand National, in which he would have been our selection. We assume that connections know what they are doing in going for this much tougher event. He won the big novice chase here in 2011, and Silviniaco Contoi took the same race last year. Another Irish hope is Whodoyouthink (Oliver McKiernan/ M Darc y), whose trainer won this with a 50-1 shot last year and is hoping for a similar result,, but we think that Quito de la Roque is a decent each-way bet at the likely odds.
The next Grade One is the Aintree Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.05. Oscar Whisky (Henderson/ McCoy) has won this the last twice, with Thousand Stars (Willie Mullins/ Townend) a neck behind on both occasions. Therer has been no dsatisfactory explanation for Odscar Whisky´s flop last time at Cheltenham, so we are not so keen on him, but certainly expect the Irish hope to run well. However there is very strong opposition here from Countrywide Flame (John Quinn/ Denis O´Regan) and Zarkandar (Nicholls/ Walsh), third and fourth in the Champion Hurdle, a race in which Grandouet (Henderson/ Geraghty) fell when still well in contention. Then there is the new kid on the block- The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), winner of 7 of his 9 races and especially impresssive at Cheltenham. He is up against much better rivals this time, but could easily scorer again, although we do not think he is a a good bet at the likely price. This is the best race of the day and any of those mentione d could win, but we shall go for Thousand Stars each way.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rolling Star - Irish Saint - Flaxen Flare
2. Race: First Lieutenant - The Giant Bolster - Cape Tribulation
3. Race: The New One - Zarkandar - Grandouet
4. Race: Gwanako - Bold Addition - Warne
5. Race: Kid Cassidy - Rebel Rebellion - Pires
6. Race: Fago - Captain Conan - Changing Times
7. Race: Easter Day - Open Hearted - Jetson