Monday, April 08, 2013

4 meetings today

4 meetings today, Kelso over jumps and 2 with flat racing on the all-weather and also Irish flat racing at Gowran Park, but nothing to quicken the blood. At Kelso, we expect Scarlet Fire (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) to win the first division of the novice hurdle at 15.00 CET, the trainer gives his horses plenty of time and this one looks a decent prospect. Veloce (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) is favourite for the second division at 17.00, but the stable has not been firing recently and we prefer Potomac (Rose Dobbin/ Henry Brooke), who did not jump that brilliantly on his hurdles debut but won 3 times on the flat and can now score his first win over hurdles if he jumps a bit better. Henry Brooke has several rides today and we think he has a good each-way chance on Jim Goldie´s Circus Clown at 15.30, who has dropped to a nice weight.
The 3yo maiden over 1 1/2 miles at 17.25 is the most interesting event at Gowran Park. Orgiglo Bay (JC McConnell/ Gary Carroll), has easily the best public form, having run in group and listed races last year, However it would be no surprise to see him beaten by well-bred representives from the O´Brien, Bolger and Weld camps. Aidan O´Brien had two 3yo winners at the Curragh yesterday, and Everglades Island is probably the better of his 2 runners, with son Joseph in the saddle. We also hope to see Qasser (Kevin Prendergast/ SH James) take the rated race at 16.55; he is lightly-raced and looks capable of further improvement.
There are two very well-bred runners at Kempton this afternoon. Aegaeus (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) is by German champion Monsun (two group winners in France yesterday!) out of multiple Group One winner Ouija Board; he has not so far lived up to this illustrious pedigree, but is on a very low handicap rating as a result and can take the10 furlongs race at 15.50. Frasers Hill (Roger Varian/ Jimmy Fortune), who cost 300,000 guineas as a yearling, is also a 4yo who needs to catch up; he has only run once, 18 months ago, so has clearly had some problems, but he can take the maiden race at 16.20.
The Wolverhampton card is very low grade, but we think that Roger Charlton´s filly Top Trail (Jack Doyle) should follow up an easy CD win 12 days ago by winning the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 17.40.

Betting forecast Kempton:
1. Race: Memory Styx - Hedge End - Princess Tamay
2. Race: Aegaeus - Tadabeer - Balady
3. Race: Dalgig - World Record - Frasers Hill
4. Race: Sam Spade - Green Special - Tiger`s Home
5. Race: Handiwork - Conversing - Poetic Verse
6. Race: West Leake - Teen Ager - Duke Of Destiny
7. Race: Carina Palace - Admiralofthesea - Forceful Flame