Sunday, February 03, 2013

more Cheltenham clues in Ireland today

a high class card at Punchestown today and pride of place clearly goes to Sizing Europe (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) who runs in the Grade Two Tied Cottage Chase over 2 miles at 15.20 CET. This admirable performer has won 8 of his last 11 races, including this one last year, and finished runner-up in the other 3. He is clearly the best 2-mile chaser in Ireland, but connections are not yet sure which race to go for at Cheltenham; the Champion Chase, which he won in 2011 and where he finished second last year, is the obvious choice, but Sprinter Sacre looks unbeatable there; however he should certainly win easily today with Blazing Tempo (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) the most likely runner-up.
The Grade Two novice hurdle at 14.20 sees German-bred Don Cossack (Gotrdon Elliott/ Davy Russell) attempt to redeeem his reputation after a feeble effort last time. He should do so, at the main expense of Motoltov (Mullins/ Walsh) and Ned Buntime (Noel Meade/ Tony McCoy), but is not a good bet at the likely odds.
McCoy´s trip to Ireland should not be in vain as he can win the Pertemps Handicap hurdle at 14.50 on Ted Walsh´s Colbert Station, who won a valuable chase last time and is very well handicapped over hurdles. However he will be a hot favourite, which means that he is no value in a field of 22.
The Grand National trial, a handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles at 16.50, will be a real test under the prevailing conditions. Vesper Bell (Mullins/ Walsh) is a lightly-raced young chaser who could go right to the top, but he has a huge weight here and we cannot see him giving 23 lbs to Arbor Supreme (Jonjo O´Neill/ Maurice Lineham). The good claimer usually rides him and they finished fourth last time in the Welsh National and before that won the Devon Marathon. This race looks ideal for him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Upazo - Dancers Dilemma - Byerley Babe
2. Race: Don Cossack - Ned Buntline - Mozoltov
3. Race: Colbert Station - Blissful Moment - Royal Reveille
4. Race: Sizing Europe - Foildubh - Blazing Tempo
5. Race: Bostons Angel - Arabella Boy - Uncle Junior
6. Race: Lambro - Alderwood - Far Away So Close
7. Race: Vesper Bell - Arbor Supreme - Spot The Boss
8. Race: Rough Justice - Shemshal - Railway Tommy