Sunday, February 03, 2013

Festival trials at Musselburgh

after the Cheltenham trials 8 days ago, it is the turn of Scottish Musselburgh to stage more trials for the Festival, and with the ground perhaps the best we have seen all year in the U.K., the track has attracted some smart performers, including runners from top Southern trainers Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls.
If there is a Cheltenham winner engaged, it is almost certainly Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), second favourite for the Arkle, who runs in the opening Scottish Arkle at 14.00 CET. This wonderfully versatile front-runner was top class on the flat and over hurdles and is going the same way over fences, having won both his chases so far with the minimum of fuss. Tetlami (Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) was a useful hurdler who won his first chase despite making a terrible mistake, and looks the only danger.
There are also only 4 runners in the Future Champions Novice Chase at 15.00; this looks very tricky as all 4 can be given a chance, and we hope that Attaglance (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes), the only one who has not won over fences but therefore receives 8 lbs from the otjher 3, can put his weight advantage to good use; over hurdles he was as good as the others. Tap Night (Lucinda Russell/ Geraghty), who has won 5 of his last 6 races, is however the one to beat.
The Scottish Triumph Hurdle trial at 15.30 looks between the 3 penalised runners, with Kashmir Peak (John Quinn/ Dougie Costello), so far unbeaten over hurdles, again meeting Sametegal (Nicholls/ Darly Jacob). He beat that rival by a length at Doncaster in December, but the Nicholls runner is now 3 lbs better off, which could swing matters his way.
Areial (Nicholls/ Jacob) is the one who gets weight in the Albert Bartlett Scottish Trial at 14.30, but he seems a better chaser than hurdler, so we are a bit doubtful; Lord Wishes (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes) and Witness in Court (McCain/ Maguire) are two very promising young staying hurdlers and one of them should win.
The Scottish Champion Chase at 16.00 is a 2 miles handicap and looks wide open, with Anquetta (Henderson/ Geraghty) the top-weight and likely favourite; he has not run since April but his form at the Festival in March would be good enough here. Ciceron (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) has been runner-up 3 times running, but was well beaten each time - but always by good opponents. He looks sure to be placed again.
The Scottish County Hurdle at 16.30 is another open affair, but we shall give another chance to CD specialist Dontpaytheferryman (Brian Eliison/ Danny Cook), who has twice been placed in this race; Creekside (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan). who has been chasing, looks the principal threat.
The only other meeting in the U.K. today is the all-weather fixture at Lingfield, which in our view is best left alone.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Overturn - Tetlami - Asaid
2. Race: Aerial - Witness In Court - According To Trev
3. Race: Tap Night - Desert Cry - Viva Colonia
4. Race: Kashmir Peak - Sametegal - Docs Legacy
5. Race: Ciceron - Swift Arrow - Stormy Weather
6. Race: Brick Red - Creekside - Dontpaytheferryman
7. Race: Cloudy Lane - Island Life - Pistolet Noir
8. Race: Barenger - Salubrious - Fine Kingdom