Sunday, February 24, 2013

3 jumps meetings today

there is N.H. racing at 3 meetings today - Towcester and Fontwell in the U.K. and Naas in Ireland, and while the Towcester card is very low level, the other two tracks have some decent racing with possibly more Cheltenham clues to be found.
Main feature at Fontwell is the National Spirit Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET. This neutral distance appeals to both 2-milers and stayers, but either way Paul Nicholls - back in top form yesterday- seems in a strong position with 3 of the 6 runners. According to official ratings Prospect Wells (Daryl Jacob) is the weakest of the trip, but he is our selection as we think that this superbly-bred performer (a Sadlers Wells half-brother to Arc winner Solemia) has plenty more to offer. Stable companion Dark Lover (Ryan Mahon), noted running on well when 4th in the Betfair Hurdle over 2 miles, is the obvious danger. he is German-bred as is Bergo, a high-class stayer on the flat but who has not run for nearly 3 years. Meister Eckhardt (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), whose stable has frequently won this, is also coming off a long break, so we expect the Nicholls stable to dominate completely here. Nicholls and Jacob can also take the novice chase at 15.40 with Poungach, while a nother German-bred we think could run well (at a much lower level) is Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Conor Ring) in the handicap hurdle at 17.50; this half-brother to Group One winner Lady Marian was totally out of form last year, but has been dropped to a very lenient weight.
Best race at Towcester is the handicap chase at 16.25. We have long been a fan of The Sawyer (Bob Buckler/ Andrew Glassonbury) and the front-runner faces his easiest task for some time. However he is 13 now and seems to have deteriorated, so we prefer top-weight Valley View (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon), who has also been running in better company.
There are 3 Graded races in Naas, and - surprise, surprise!- the Willie Mullins/ Ruby Waslsh team has fabcied runners in all three. We expect them to take the novice chase at 15.30 with Mikael d´Haguenet, who appears to have got his jumping problems ironed out, but we are not convinced by Annie Power in the novice hurdle at 16.35, even though she is unbeaten in 5 races. She is facing much stronger opposition this time, as is Defy Logic (Paul Nolan/ Tony McCoy), easy winner of his only hurdle race, and we prefer German-bred Don Cossack (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell), from the team that won yesterday´s big race in Ireland, who is proven in this grade. Call the Police is the Mullins/ Walsh runner in the paddypower.com Chase at 17.120 and he has an obvious chance in this small field, but we just prefer distance specialist Days Hotel (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Seebright - Uncle Jimmy - Letemgo
2. Race: Poungach - Shoegazer - Tenor Nivernais
3. Race: Financial Climate - Time To Think - No No Bingo
4. Race: Dark Lover - Prospect Wells - Brampour
5. Race: Radetsky March - Bleuvito - Keel Road
6. Race: Bathcounty - Kambis - Priest Island
7. Race: Sergeant Mattie - Somchine - Jammy