Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Overturn at Doncaster

Much better racing today than we have seen so far this week, and the star of the show is undoubtedly Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who runs in the 2 mile novice chase at 15.15 CET at Doncaster. This admirable 9yo is one of the toughest horses in training; on the flat his wins include the Northumberland Plate and the Chester Cup, while he is also top class over hurdles, finishing second in the Champion Hurdle last March. He won his only chase in excellent style at Sandown two months ago, and has missed out several opportunities since then because of the heavy going. The ground at Doncaster today should be ideal and he only has 3 opponents, of whom Conquisto (Steve Gollings/ Tony McCoy) and Attaglance (Malcolm Jefferson/ Harry Haynes) may be able to offer some resistance, but defeat for Overturn would come as a big shock.

Also at Doncaster, the 4yo hurdle at 13.40 should be very informative, with several interesting flat horses making their hurdling debuts. Handazan (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) has already shown good form over the sticks and sets the standard here, but has to concede 7 lbs all round, which may be beyond him. Modernism (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) was only fourth on his hurdling debut, but his stable is now winning everything in sight, so he must be respected, although on flat form he is inferior to Ferguson´s two Leicester winners yesterday. Aazif (McCain/ Maguire), ex-John Dunlop, Last Shadow (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy), ex- William Muir, and Little Dutch Girl (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass), ex-Clive Cox, were all useful flat handicappers now running for the first time for top stables over sticks, but the one that really interests us is Milord (Kim Bailey/ Nick Scholfield). He was regarded as Schlenderhan´s top 3yo last year, but was a major disappointment, finishing well down th e field in the Deutsches Derby, though he did win a small race at the Baden-Baden October meeting, but he could well be a much better proposition now over hurdles.

John Ferguson also has an interesting runner over hurdles at Ludlow -the very well-bred Bordoni, who runs at 16.05 with Jack Quinlan in the saddle. Surprisingly for a runner from this stable, he did not jump that fluently when runner-up on his debut at Warwick last month, but he should have learned from that and can win today. with Amoralist (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) looking his most dangerous opponent. The best betting race here is the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 14.55, where Brick Red, rather unlucky last time at Cheltenham, could be another winner for the in-form Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman team.

There is also jumps racing in Ireland, and Willie Mullins - despite a rather disappointing weekend- should have some winners at Fairyhouse. Ruby Walsh rides Sarabad at 13.15 and Abbey Lane half an hour later, while Davy Russell partners Raise Hell at 14.45 and son Paddy Beluckyagain in the bumper at 16.30; it will be quite a surprise if there are not some winners among that lot.

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: Handazan - Little Dutch Girl - Last Shadow
2. Race: Eleven Fifty Nine - Katnapping - St Gregory
3. Race: Whistling Senator - Nodform Richard - Soudain
4. Race: Overturn - Conquisto - Attaglance
5. Race: Castletown Bridge - Saints And Sinners - Parc Des Princes
6. Race: Grey Missile - Back Bob Back - Vosges
7. Race: Lotus Pond - Dance Of Time - Upswing