Saturday, January 26, 2013

Cheltenham today

Today´s card at Cheltenham - Festival Trials day - is extremely strong and had been strengthened further by the addition of the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase over 2 miles at 14.50 CET, rescheduled from last week´s abandoned Ascot meeting. Sprinter Sacre (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is the star here and it is almost impossible to imagine his getting beaten, although he will not be at a backable price. He has won 10 of his 12 races, including the Arkle this CD last March, and is the highest rated N.H. horse currently in training in the U.K. and Ireland. In theory he cannot lose today and Kumbeshwar and Sanctuaire, who finished miles behind him in the Tingler Creek, will probably take the minor places again (but probably in reverse order).

As always Henderson and his great rival Paul Nicholls are strongly represented in almost every race and go head to head in the opening Triumph Hurdle Trial at 13.10 (note the early start!) with the smart ex-French 4yo´s Irish Saint (Ruby Walsh) and Rolling Star (Geraghty). However we will take a chance here on German-bred Milord (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire), who gets 7 lbs from them both. The Monsun gelding was Schlenderhan´s big German Drerby hope last year, but although he did not live up to expectations, this is a different kettle of fish and we think he could be an interesting each-way bet here at the likely long odds.

The Cleeve Hurdle at 16.35 is another Grade Two event over sticks, and is a major trial for the World Hurdle, in which champion Big Bucks will not run. Oscar Whisky (Henderson/ Geraghty) is his crown prince, although still unproven at the distance, while Reve de Sivola (Nick Williams/ Richard Johnson) has already shown that he stays well. Both of them are giving weight away, so it is no foregone conclusion, and Alan King´s pair Lovcen and Walkon must also be considered.

The Grade Two Argento Chase at 15.25 is a trial for the Gold Cup, but with most of the stars missing, this is a weak renewal. In this case Midnight Chase (Neil Mulholland/ Dougie Costello), who won the race last yeat and has an exvcellent record here, must be the choice. But the big question mark here is Imperial Commander (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) who won the Gold Cup in 2010. He has not run since being pulled up in the 2011 edition, but runs well fresh and gets weight from all the other runners and must be a huge threat if anywhere near his old form.

The Grade Two novice hurdle at 15.00 has only 5 runners, but 4 of them look hugely promising - including Coneygree (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Batchelor) and The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), both unbeaten in 3 starts over hurdles; this is not a race for betting on, but must be watched.

There is also a good card at Leopardstown in Ireland, but with small fields in the featured races - with hot favourites trained by Willie Mullins -and huge fields in the others, this is not very punter-friendly.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rolling Star - Irish Saint - Feb Thirtyfirst
2. Race: Rajdhani Express - Gullinbursti - Ballygarvey
3. Race: Katenko - Bold Sir Brian - Our Mick
4. Race: Sprinter Sacre - Sanctuaire - Somersby
5. Race: Grands Crus - Imperial Commander - Hunt Ball
6. Race: The New One - Coneygree - Whisper
7. Race: Oscar Whisky - Reve De Sivola - Kauto Stone
8. Race: Lord Of House - Sadler`S Risk - Bourne