Monday, January 07, 2013

3 meetings today

There is N.H. racing today at Taunton (on very soft ground) and all-weather meetings at Kempton and Wolverhampton (for the fourth day in succession). Taunton has by far the most interesting card, with the novice chase over 2 miles 3 furlongs at 15.40 CET the main feature. With only 5 runners, this looks a match between Cantlow (Paul Webber/ Tony McCoy) and Dare Me (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman).

The trainer thinks that Cantlow, who is penalised for winning last time at Plumpton and was bought 3 months ago by top owner JP McManus, is a Cheltenham prospect, in which case he ought to win in this grade, but on hurdles form he does not have much in hand of Dare Me, who fell last time. Ruby Walsh flies over for just two rides - Sound Investment in the maiden hurdle at 14.10 and Saphir du Rheu in a novice hurdle at 156.10, where he is the only 4yo in the field and gets weight all round; still it doesn´ t look easy, and Orabora (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), despite the weight. and God of the Kop (Rebecca Curtis/ McCoy) both look dangerous. In the former event we shall also be interested in German-bred Ordensritter (Chris Down/ James Davies); he has not shown much on his two U.K. starts, but we are sure he is capable of winning a race. He was well beaten in the 2011 Deutsches Derby, but this of course is miuch easier. Davies and Down also have a good chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.10 with Extremely So, who was runner-up over this CD last week to Home Run, a good winner again since. The same day Jupiter Rex (Williams/ Coleman) showed his best ever form by winning by 15 lengths and he can follow up under a penalty in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 17.10.

At Kempton there are only 4 runners in the 3yo mile handicap at 15.30, which should lie between Ningara (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) and Smilewithhiseyes (Gay Kelleway/ Robert Winston), both CD winners last time of their second career start. Ningara created the better impression, but has been given a higher weight, so there could be little in it. Gary Moore had an excellent weekend with his N.H. runners and can score on the flat here with Moderator (Ned Curtis) who has bottom weight in the 1 172 mile handicap at 16.30; consistent Noble Silk (Lucy Wadham/ Luke Morris) looks the main danger.

The racing of offer at Wolverhampton is, as so often, very low grade, but our eye is caught by Getrman-bred Waldsee in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.50. He has so far totally failed to live up to his noble pedigree (his dam was a classic winner and his half-brother won the German Derby) but he is now on a ridiculously low rating and will find few easier opportunities than this.

Kempton . betting forecast:
1. Race: Hierarch - Breakheart - May`S Boy
2. Race: Liliana - Big Moza - Lucilla
3. Race: Ningara - Smileswithhiseyes - First Sargeant
4. Race: Beat The Bell - Dark Lane - Fairy Wing
5. Race: Roberto Pegasus - Wildomar - Noble Silk
6. Race: Bridge That Gap - Menadati - Beggers Belief
7. Race: Lastkingofscotland - Black Cadillac - Belinsky