Sunday, December 30, 2012

Taunton and Lingfield

Taunton now offers the only turf racing of the day and the main event is the listed mares´ novice hurdle at 15.20 CET. Ma Filleule (Nicky Henderspn/ Barry Geraghty) was beaten a neck in a similar event at Newbury last time and that form should be good enough. Favourite Call me a Star (Aöan KIng/ Robert Thornton) was 7 lengths back in third and Eleven Fifty Nine (Tony Honeyball/ Roddi Greene) fourth, and we see no reasy why they should now finish in front of her. Doyly Carte (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke) and Mischievous Milly (Oliver Sherwood/ Sam Jones) both won well last time, are lightly raced and progressive, and are the main dangers. The only other Henderson/ Geraghty starter is Electrolyser in the opening novice hurdle at 13.40 and he is the most interesting runner of the day. A smart stayer on the flat, he was a close fourth in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot in mid-October and is one of the best flat horses to go hurdling this season. He is in the right hands and can ge t off to a winning start over the sticks.
Our best5 bet of thr day is Home Run (David Pipe/ Mr.M. Heard) in the handicap hurdle at 14.10. The Pipe stable do not believe in letting their horses rest on their laurels and this one has already won 3 times this month, including over this CD. He has gone up 18 lbs, including his penalty for winning on Boxing Day, but we think he is still capable of better; bred by Gestüt Ammerland, he is closely related to Hurricane Run. We also like top-weight Ifyouletmefinish (Jeremy Scott/ Matt Griffiths) in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 16.30, who has been running in much better company. Paul Nicholls is always to be feared here, and his Deireadh Re (Harry Derham), though clearly not one of the stable´s stars, could be good enough to take the handicap chase at 14.55.
The card at Lingfield is low grade and with some small fields, not at all punter friendly. The best betting races are the two divisions of the 7 furlongs handicap at the end of the afternoon. In the first division at 16.20 we shall stick with German-bred Querido (Paddy Butler/ Willie Twiston-Davies); he has a superb pedigree but is very inconsistent and basically disappointing, however we remain convinced that he is capable of winning off this rating -possibly today. The second division, half an hour later, can go to top-weight Renoir´s Lady (Simon Dow/ Jim Crowley), who did not get much of a run when a beaten favourite over this CD 3 weeks ago.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Electrolyser - The Mumper - Sidney Melbourne
2. Race: Home Run - Coffee - Cruise In Style
3. Race: Dushy Valley - Jayandbee - Dimpsy Time
4. Race: Call Me A Star - Ma Filleule - Doyly Carte
5. Race: Requin - Deireadh Re - Honest John
6. Race: Kartanian - Landscape - Ifyouletmefinish
7. Race: Monty`S Revenge - Dancing Daffodil - Whitcombe Spirit