King George VI Chase at Kempton

the King George VI Chase over 3 miles at Kempton at 16.10 CET this afternoon, is one of the top chases of the season, and generally reckoned to be second only to the Gold Cup itself. Today´s race revolves round Long Run (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen), who won the race two years ago and followed up at Cheltenham; last year he was runner-up to the mighty Kauto Star and he is top-rated here and certainly the logical winner. He acts on soft ground, though has never run on going as heavy as this- but this applies to most of the others as well. He is ridden as always by the owner´s son, but that to my mind is no disadvantage as Sam knows him inside out, while the stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides Riverside Theatre, runner-up to him here 2 years ago; he has not run since April, but that is no problem, as he goes well fresh and has been aimed at this race all along. However the going could be problematic and we are not sure that he will stay the trip on this ground. The same go es for Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard), a most impressive winner of the Haldon Gold Cup last time, but who has never run beyond 2 1/2 miles nor on heavy ground. Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh have dominated this race in recent years with Kauto Star and are now represented by his younger brother Kauto Stone, a Grade One winner in Ireland last time; he needs to improve to win here, but that is not totally out of the question. David Pipe saddles 2 runners, Grands Crus (Tom Scudamore), who won the Feltham last year but ran inexplicably badly last time at Cheltenham, and the tough stayer Junior (Conor O´Farrell). Junior made all to win at Newcastle last time on heavy ground, and as one of the few who will relish the conditions, we would not be surprised to see him run a big race. Another longshot we like is German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tony McCoy), by Black Sam Bellamy out of a Lomitas mare; he is also guaranteed to get the trip, but his problem could be the ri ght-handed track, almost all his form is on left-handed tracks and he is a noted as a Cheltenham specialist - runner-up in the Gold Cup last season. He was behind Long Run last time, but finished in front of him at Cheltenham, and if he acts on the course, could be a major threat. However Long Run is definitely the most likely winner, but our bet will be Junior (each-way).
The two main supporting features are the Feltham Novices Chase over 3 miles at 15.00 and the Christmas Hurdle at 15.35, both Grade One events. Pipe and Scu won the former race with Grands Crus last year and can follow up with Dynaste. A smart staying hurdler, he has begun his chasing career in great style and will be the shortest-priced favourite of the day. The hurdle race is much trickier, and unfortunately there are now only 7 runners, making it less attractive for each-way bettors like us. Darlan (Henderson/ McCoy) is the best horse in the field, but it is highly likely that he will not act on the ground, and both his stable companion Punjabi (Geraghty) and his owner´s other runner get me Out of Here (RP McLernon) may possibly be preferred. We like Punjabi, who has not run for almost 3 years, (no problem with this trainer) and who won the Champion Hurdle back in 2009.