Monday, December 17, 2012

3 meetings today

It is no point expecting good jumps racing this week with the huge post-Christmas cards only a few days away. Today´s fixtures at Ffos Laas and Plumpton are modest, with heavy ground and some small fields as well- especially at Plumpton, where normal each-way betting is almost impossible. Topny McCoy should certainly win the opening 3yo hurdle at 13.30 CET on Brendan Powell´s Fredlot (out of the good German mare Wurfklinge) and has a good chance of following up in the novice chase half an hour later on Paul Webber´s Cantlow. However he may find Oscara Dara(Nicky Henderson/ David Bass too strong; he has not run since winning at the Punchestown Festival in April, but is described by his trainer as "a serious prospect." McCoy´s final ride is on Philip Hobbs´ Thunderstorm in the handicap hurdle at 16.35; he has not run for 22 months, but if anywhere near proper race fitness, must have a good chance in this feeble company. The obvious danger is CD specialist Little Roxy (Anna New ton-Smith/Ryan Mahon).

The best race at Ffos Las in the handover hurdle at 15.15. Three of the 8 runners here were runner-up last time, Valley Lad (David Evans/ Paddy Brennan), Gran Torino (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Ski Sunday (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson). One of them will probably win today, although it is hard to choose between them; we go for Valley Lad, owned by course supremo Dai Walters. Another last time runner-up is Ulis de Vassy (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), the horse that gave Jacob a lengthy suspension when the jockey appeared to stop riding briefly in the closing stages at Wincanton. We are not at all sure that he would have won that day, but the handicapper has - rather unfairly- put him up 6 lbs, so we prefer the top-weight Scorched Son (Vaughan/ Johnson), who was runner-up in this race last year with the remaining runners miles behind.

There are 8 races on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, but very little of interest. Solace (John Gosden/ Rab Havlin) should win the 2yo maiden at 15.55, but is unlikely to be at a decent price. The admirable La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Adam Kirby) should take the seller at 16.25; she is undefeated this year and although better known at a Southwell specialist, also has a good record here, with 5 wins from 9 starts. The card begins with two divisions of a low grade handicap for amateur riders, where the top-weights Benandonner (Paddy Butler/ Miss Bryant) at 14.55 and Knowe Head (James Unett/ Miss Jones) might come out on top.

Plumpton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Sir Fredlot - My Boy Ginger - Lady Romanza
2. Race: Cantlow - Oscara Dara - Dark And Dangerous
3. Race: Ace Fighter Pilot - Uncle Jimmy - Water Wagtail
4. Race: Guydus - Brunette`Sonly - Bally Gunner
5. Race: Romney Marsh - Jordan - Marble Walk
6. Race: Captain Tidds - Ballyman - Wishes Or Watches
7. Race: Thunderstorm - Little Roxy - Marie Deja La