Sunday, November 11, 2012

Top N.H. performers at Navan

4 jumps meetings today, but easily the best card is at Navan, where several of Ireland´s top prospects are on view. The Grade Two Fortria Chase over 2 miles at 15.50 CET has only 5 runners, but they include three stars: Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power), Realt Dubh (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and Flemenstar (Peter Casey/ Andrew Lynch). Realt Dubh was fourth last week behind Kauto Stone and will be better suited by this distance; he has a fitness advantage over the other two, but we still expect him to come off second (or third) best. He also finished well in front of Big Zeb when the latter was last seen at the Punchestown Festival, but Big Zeb is still our selection. He has won this race for the last 3 years, has won the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, and although he is now getting on a bit, he always runs best fresh and we hope to see him in best form today. Up-and-coming star Flemenstar finished last season with 5 successive wins and looks as if he will go right to the to p, but he might need the race today. Big Zeb could complete a big race double for his trainer, as we also expect his Voler la Vedette (Lynch) to take the Grade Two Lismullen Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 14.45.

One of the best mares in training, she won this last year (and is in fact 2/2 at this track) and was an excellent runner-up to Big Bucks at Cheltenham last time out. A repetition of this form would surely see her defeat So Young (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), well behind her at Cheltenham, and the main dangers could be the lightly-weighted Maller Tree (Jessica Harrington/ Power) and Mae´s Choice (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon). The third graded race is the novice hurdle at 14.15, which should go to Sizing Rio (Henry de Bromhead/ Lynch), another exciting prospect. He won at Fairyhouse last time by 18 lengths from Cops and Robbers (Meade/ Davy Russell), who reopposes on the same terms, having won himself in the meantime. These are the only 4yo´s in the field, and Captain Arceus (Dessie Hughes/ Roger Loughran), an easy CD winner last time, looks easily the best of the older horses.

There is also Irish N.H. racing at Limerick, where German-bred Sammy Black (Tony Mullins/ Brian Hayes) should have a good each-way chance in the opening maiden hurdle at 14.05. The son of Black Sam Bellamy made a decent debut at Galway last month. The other maiden hurdle, over 2 mlles 5 furlongs at 15.120, can go to The Crafty Butcher (Michael Hourigan/Adrian Heskin), who deserves to win after several fair efforts.

The better of the two U.K. cards is at Ffos Las, where Rebecca Curtis and Tony McCoy look the team to follow. They can land a hat-trick with At Fishers Cross and Boyfromnowhere in the first two races., and Castle Beach in the concluding bumper. Fishoutofwater, top-weight in the handicap chase at 16.40, would also have a chance at his best, but seems to have lost the plot. McCoy can also take the 3 miles handicap chase at 16.05 on Jim Best´s super-consistent Wayward Glance.

The card at Market Rasen is very poor and there are some small fields as well. Donald McCain and Jason Maguire can score here with their only two runners, Valleyofmilan at 14.40 and Amron Lad at 15.15.