Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Listed race this evening at Kempton

5 meetings today, but none of great importance. The best flat race is the listed event over 1 1/2 miles at 19.55 CET this evening at Kempton. The race is named after new champion jockey Richard Hughes, so it would be appropriate if he were to win it on the Queen´s filly Sequence (Sir Michael Stoute), who is however running for the first time on the all-weather. We prefer the improving handicapper Viking Storm (Harry Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan), who has won 4 of his 5 races this season, including twice on polytrack, and has good prospects on his first venture into listed company. The two Godolphin runners, Modun (Silvestre de Sousa) and Spring of Fame (Mikael Barzalona) are in fact top-rated, but we are not convinced. Main supporting feature is the mile handicap half a hour later, unfortunately with several non-runners. Net Whizz (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) is the likely hot favourite here; an expensive yearling, he has only ever run twice, winning a maiden over this CD in Septem ber and will probably outlcass this opposition, although top-weight True to Form (M Meade/ David Probert), a CD specialist, can also be expected to run well.

Nottingham stages the penultimate turf flat fixture of 2012, but large fields of moderate performers on very soft ground make it very difficult for punters. Uncle Dermot (Brendan Powell/ Chris Catlin) has been running consistently well in recent weeks and looks a good each-way bet in the mile handicap at 16.15. The two British N.H. meetings look very poor - although we think that Kellystown Lad (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) could run well on his first race for this trainer at 15.00 at Chepstow - but there are a couple of decent races in Ireland at Fairyhouse. Dancing Torado (Michael Hourigan/ JS McGarvey) has not won for 2 1/2 years, but has run several good races in smart company; he has a chance in the hurdle race at 14.15, but the much younger Cause of Causes (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon) looks the one to beat here. The novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 15.15 is another strong race, although it also has only 6 runners. 5 of them have good recent form, the other being the lik ely favourite Sizing Gold (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), who has not been seen out since winning a bumper in February. He will need to be smart to beat these opponents on his first outing over sticks.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Villoresi - Blank Czech - La Belle Doyenne
2. Race: Inthar - Islesman - Sakhee`S Pearl
3. Race: Tarbawi - Atlantis City - Rottingdean
4. Race: Twary - Lilac Tree - Swift Bounty
5. Race: Tower - Kampai - Astroscarlet
6. Race: Viking Storm - Spring Of Fame - Modun
7. Race: Net Whizz - Chapter And Verse - Validus
8. Race: Taro Tywod - Merchants Return - Poetry Writer